The Net Zero Game

Share of 2020 private-car demand still served by a liquid-fuelled car in 2050. The four car shares are rebalanced to 100% as the player moves them.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: 10% is the French teaching workbook's horizon share for gas-fuelled cars. Spain's compressed-natural-gas fleet is proportionally larger than France's, so if anything the Spanish figure is higher. It cannot be moved from here alone: the four car shares must sum to 100% at their defaults and only this one is national, so changing it needs carFuel, carElectric and carRail made national too. What would close it: the DGT vehicle register by fuel and a PNIEC/ELP fleet trajectory.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml, carGas — carried unchanged — Not a Spanish source. See NOTES.md under Placeholders.

Car demand transferred to short-distance rail, at the occupancy and unit consumption of the rail row rather than the car row.

In 2050 the model leaves no fossil liquid fuel at all: every litre is either biofuel or e-fuel made from electricity. This is a scenario assumption, and it is why liquid fuel carries a low emission factor.

The headline decarbonisation choice for buildings, and the one that drives the winter peak. It is a share of heat need, not of energy: how that heat is produced is the next question down.

Wood burned for space heating, not heat delivered. Spanish households burned 61 507.9 TJ = 17.09 TWh of primary solid biofuels and renewable waste on space heating in 2023. The rest of Eurostat's "renewables and biofuels" aggregate is 8 748.1 TJ (2.43 TWh) of ambient heat harvested by heat pumps, which the model counts as heat-pump electricity and must not count twice, and 1 403.3 TJ (0.39 TWh) of solar thermal, which is not wood. The default is today's level, which is the neutral reading. The upper bound stays below Spain's whole national consumption of primary solid biofuels, 65.4 TWh in 2024. France's lever sits at 46 TWh — 2.7 times Spain's, on 1.6 times the dwellings. Wood heating is a rural French institution and much less of a Spanish one.

• Eurostat, nrg_d_hhq — disaggregated final energy consumption in households, Spain, space heating by fuel, 2023 — R5110-5150_W6000RI 61 507.9 TJ; RA600 (ambient heat) 8 748.1; RA410 (solar thermal) 1 403.3; RA000 total 72 231.4. 61 507.9 / 3 600 = 17.09 TWh.
• Eurostat, nrg_bal_c — gross inland consumption of primary solid biofuels, Spain 2024 — 65 429.4 GWh, the whole-economy resource the upper bound is set against.

Seasonal COP 2.5, falling to 2.0 at peak.

Seasonal COP 3.0, falling to 2.0 at peak.

A slider rather than a stock that can only shrink, because a scenario may genuinely install more electric convectors — they are cheap to fit and terrible for the peak. Efficiency 1 in both seasons, so this is the one electric option that buys no COP at all.

Spain has no district heating to speak of, and that is measured rather than assumed. Three independent sources agree: Eurostat's household balance reports no derived heat in Spanish dwellings; JRC-IDEES reports zero dwellings and zero energy on "Distributed heat" for space heating in every year 2000-2021; and its services workbook reports zero building cells on distributed heat as well. The six district_* rows of building_segment are therefore exact zeros. The default is zero and the ceiling is deliberately low. A slider that let a Spanish player decarbonise heat through networks that do not exist would be a fiction, not a simplification; 10 TWh is roughly what the few hundred small biomass networks ADHAC counts could grow into, and it is offered as a build-from-nothing option rather than as a conversion of an existing fleet — which is the opposite of the French argument.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain, Residential workbook, sheet RES_hh_num, row 'Distributed heat', and Tertiary workbook, sheet SER_hh_num — Zero in every year from 2000 to 2021, in both the residential and the services workbook.

Recovered industrial and waste heat delivered through networks. Zero for the same reason as the wood row: there is no Spanish network fleet to deliver it into. Spanish industry does reject recoverable heat — the post table's waste-heat shares say how much — but with no network the model has nowhere to put it, and the honest ceiling is small.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain — derived heat is zero in both the residential and the services balance

One slider conflates retrofit depth and retrofit rate, which have very different costs. Separating them is a documented next step.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

Hidden and inert: this edition carries no cement intensity per square metre, so no floor area can reach its cement. Zero rather than the observed rate, because a number that moves nothing would invite a reader to quote it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

Hidden and inert, for the same reason as newHousing.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

Hidden and inert: with no floor area reaching cement, a timber share has nothing to displace.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

Hidden and inert: this edition's cement is all in the residual row, which no lever drives, so there is no civil-works tonnage for this index to multiply.

DERIVED WITH A FRENCH INTENSITY, not a Spanish statistic. No Spanish ammonia production figure was reached. What was reached is the national inventory's process line for ammonia: CRF 2B1 is 0.2908 MtCO₂ for Spain in 2021 against 1.5167 for France. France's ammoniaProduction is 900 kt/y, so the same CO₂ per tonne gives Spain 900 × 0.2908 / 1.5167 = 173 kt/y, rounded to 175. Two reasons to distrust it and one to keep it. CRF 2B1 is reported net of the CO₂ that goes into urea, and the two countries do not make the same amount of urea, so the intensity is not identical. And Fertiberia's declared nameplate capacity — 400 kt/y at Palos de la Frontera and 200 kt/y at Puertollano — is over three times this figure, which is why the slider's maximum is 600 rather than something near the default. The reason to keep it is that the alternative is zero, and Spain plainly does make ammonia.

• Eurostat, env_air_gge — CRF 2B1 (ammonia production), CO₂, Spain and France, 2021 — Spain 0.2908 MtCO₂, France 1.5167 MtCO₂. Not a production statistic: this is the derivation, and it is why the entry is provisional.

Only the biogenic fraction of the CO₂ fed to the synthetic-olefin route counts as a removal, which is why this lever alone can turn the olefin process term negative.

How much less plastic the country asks for, against the base year — a demand reduction and not a recycling rate. It scales the olefin tonnage the crackers make and, since 0.28.0, the plastic the country's incinerators burn — which is where most of its effect now lies, and why it finally lowers emissions rather than raising them. It is the one lever in this chain that answers "how much of this do we need" rather than "how do we make it". The two French reference scenarios cannot anchor it. ADEME's Transition(s) 2050 publishes material-demand trajectories for steel, aluminium, cement and glass and none for plastics; its plastics content is an 80% recycling rate, and négaWatt does the same. Both express plastics as a rate of recycling, which since 0.33.0 is read on plasticRecycling, not here. What can is SYSTEMIQ's ReShaping Plastics, the one published pathway that separates the wedges. European plastic demand grows in its baseline, 37 to 48 Mt by 2050; its Circularity scenario takes 25% off that baseline by reducing demand and 4% more by substituting materials. Against 2050 that is 29%; against today it is under 10%, because a quarter of a growing baseline is a tenth of the present. This slider is written against the base year, so the two readings are the two ends of what one study supports — and the reference, 30%, sits at the far edge of the more generous one. The sectors move in opposite directions underneath: packaging can lose 38% (an eighth eliminated, a further three tenths reused), vehicles 22%, while construction plastic grows by half in every scenario published. A single national share hides that, and a player moving this slider is assuming the packaging wedge does all the work.

• SYSTEMIQ (2022), ReShaping Plastics: Pathways to a Circular, Climate Neutral Plastics System in Europe, for Plastics Europe — EU27+UK, baseline 37→48 Mt by 2050; Circularity scenario 25% reduce + 4% substitute
• ADEME, Transition(s) 2050 — material-demand trajectories for steel, aluminium, cement and glass; plastics carried as a recycling rate
• See docs/waste/olefins_and_plastic_demand.md for the legal instruments (PPWR, SUP, loi AGEC, décret 3R) and why they do not bound this slider

The share of the plastic that reaches the incinerators in the base year which is sorted out and recycled instead. It is how the French reference scenarios express plastics: ADEME's Transition(s) 2050 and négaWatt both carry an 80% recycling rate, against 20% for all French plastic waste in 2022. If what is not recycled is burned, going from 20% to 80% leaves a quarter of today's burned plastic, which is 75 on this slider; the default, 0, is today's rate. Applied after plasticReduction: plastic not consumed is not there to recycle. Each tonne recycled costs 0.5 MWh of electricity, the middle of the 0.3–0.7 the JRC gives for mechanical recycling, booked on the waste-to-energy post because the model has no post for sorting and recycling. Three things it does not do. The recycled polymer does not displace any virgin olefin: the territorial inventory credits nothing unless French crackers actually make less, and the JRC discounts most recycled polymers to 0.6 of a virgin tonne. Sorting losses are not modelled — a recycling line rejects part of what it receives, and that refuse is burned or landfilled. And the plastic still in the residual bin is the hardest to recover: films, soiled and multilayer packaging, and the plastic in textiles and nappies.

• SDES (September 2025), Bilan 2022 de la production de déchets en France, p. 4 — plastics recycling rate 20%
• ADEME, Transition(s) 2050 — plastics carried as an 80% recycling rate
• JRC (2023), Environmental and economic assessment of plastic waste recycling, EUR 31423, p. 54 — mechanical recycling 0.3–0.7 MWh of electricity a tonne; pp. 29–30, substitution factors (PP 0.6, HIPS 0.65, food-grade PET 1)
• See docs/waste/plastics_and_incineration.md, §2.2

The share of an incinerator's stack CO₂ that is captured and stored. A capture plant does not sort the molecules, so it takes the fossil and the biogenic CO₂ together — and about 60% of what leaves a French incinerator is biogenic. Capturing on an incinerator is therefore mostly bioenergy with carbon capture, which is the point worth teaching. Only the fossil part lowers the national total here. The biogenic part is shown and not counted: a captured biogenic tonne is a removal, and removals are what techSink already stands for — counting them here as well would book the same tonne twice. The hydrogen route does count its biogenic capture as negative, and the controversy table says why that is contested. 90% is the top because it is what the plants being built claim: 85% in the techno-economic literature, 87% at Oslo's Klemetsrud, 90% announced at Le Mans. Since 0.32.0 the capture is powered and paid for: 0.315 MWh of electricity a tonne captured, fossil or biogenic, which the mix has to produce, and 100 € a tonne for the plant plus 50 for transport and storage, in the cost tab. The biogenic tonnes are paid for and not counted, which is why a fossil tonne avoided here costs two and a half times a tonne captured.

• Bertone et al. (2024), Techno-Economic Assessment of Amine-Based Carbon Capture in Waste-to-Energy Incineration Plant Retrofit, Sustainability 16(19) 8468 — 85% capture, 90–156 €/tCO₂
• Hafslund Celsio, Klemetsrud (Oslo) — about 400 ktCO₂/y emitted, 350 kt/y captured, about 60% biogenic; FID January 2025, operation Q3 2029
• See docs/waste/plastics_and_incineration.md, §4

Renamed in v0.20, because it finally has a driver. Until then it was "cement-demand reduction" with no why, no help and nothing behind it: a scenario could take 60% off the country's cement without saying which building it had not built, and the annex could not say what the slider meant. How much is built is now the construction module's business. What is left here is the intensity of the works: leaner mixes, thinner slabs and post-tensioned structures, a design that uses the concrete it pours. It is not clinkerRate, which replaces clinker inside the cement with slag or fly ash; this one asks for less cement in the first place. The two multiply, and a scenario that pushes both is asking for a lot from the same building twice over. The range is a rule. The published levers for the sector are the clinker ratio and capture, and nobody has assessed how far structural design alone can go — so 60% is a bound on an argument rather than on an assessment.

Spain's observed clinker-to-cement ratio is 81.4%, against France's 63.9%, and that one number changes the Spanish cement game. The model computes clinker as cement_base_production × clinkerRate, so a file that inherited France's default of 60% would understate Spanish clinker — and with it Spanish cement process emissions — by a quarter. At 81 the model makes 14 564 kt of clinker from 17 980 kt of cement, against the 14 634 kt Spain actually made in 2024: 0.5% out, which is the rounding of an integer-percentage slider. The default is today's value, the neutral reading. France's 60 is already a decarbonisation assumption rather than an observation, so the two defaults are not comparable. The floor of 50% is about what a heavily blended cement reaches with slag and calcined clay; the ceiling of 85% is a little above today, because a Spanish scenario that raises the ratio is one in which clinker exports grow, and Spain is a net exporter. Its high ratio is a structural fact, not an inefficiency: clinker exported is clinker not blended down at home.

• Andrew, R. M., Global CO₂ emissions from cement production, Zenodo record 20397304 (CC-BY) — Spain 2024: cement 17 980.35 kt, clinker 14 634.30 kt, ratio 0.8139. 2020: 16 176.87 and 15 652.60, ratio 0.9676 — the ratio has fallen steeply since, which is the substitution this lever represents. France 2024: 16 000 and 10 219.86, ratio 0.6387.

The share of a cement kiln's fossil stack that is captured: the decarbonation of the limestone and, since 0.29.0, the fossil part of the kiln fuel, because a capture plant on a cement stack does not sort the molecules. The biogenic CO₂ of the waste the kiln burns goes up the same stack and would be captured too; it is not credited, for the reason wteCapture gives. Until 0.27.0 the term this lever multiplied carried the kiln fuel under the name of calcination, and the same fuel was also charged through the energy account — emitted twice, captured once. In 0.27.0 it captured the calcination alone and was a floor; now it is the whole fossil stack. Since 0.32.0 it is powered and paid for: 0.54 MWh of electricity a tonne of clinker at 95%, which the mix has to produce, the capture plant's capital in the cost of clinker, and 50 € a tonne for transport and storage on everything it stores, biogenic included.

The share of a kiln's heat that comes from waste rather than from petroleum coke and coal. French kilns were at 38% in 2015, 44% in 2021 and 52% in 2023, burning over a million tonnes of waste a year; the sector's roadmap takes it to 80% in 2030 and 85% in 2050, the default. About half of that waste is biomass, so the lever cuts the kiln's fossil CO₂ roughly half as fast as it moves: at 0% the whole heat is fossil, at 85% still 56% of it is. It does not take waste from the incinerators, and since 0.33.0 that is a finding rather than a gap. The refuse-derived fuel French kilns burn is made from the refuse of sorting lines — commercial waste, separate collection, bulky waste — and French policy keeps residual household waste out of it. Its alternative is landfill, not the incinerators, which are full and turned away half a million tonnes in 2022. The two would compete for the same tonne only once landfill is close to zero.

• Feuille de route de décarbonation de la filière Ciment (May 2023), Tableau 3-2 p. 12 — 38% (2015), 44% (2021), 80% (2030), 85% (2050)
• France Ciment / SFIC, Le ciment en chiffres 2024, pp. 8 and 10 — 52% of the kiln's energy from waste in 2023, over 1 086 000 t
• ADEME / In Extenso, ELCIMAÏ, RDC (January 2026), DAE et CSR — état des lieux et vision prospective, synthèse, pp. 27, 30, 39 — CSR made from sorting refuse, residual household waste excluded; its alternative outlet is landfill
• ADEME / Rudologia, Le traitement des DMA en 2022 (ITOM 2022), p. 21 — 496 kt turned away by incinerators, 63% of it to landfill

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

How much the branches the game does not model produce, between today's output and the source workbook's 2050 scenario. That scenario is a reindustrialisation: measured branch by branch it multiplies textile output by 8.5, electronics by 3.1, mineral extraction by 2.5, while mineral chemistry falls to 0.52 and naval and aerospace to 0.56. Growth of that size is not decarbonisation, and separating it from the process lever is the whole point — otherwise a player could appear to clean up industry while assuming an eightfold textile sector.

• Offre_et_demande.xlsx, branch sheets E18–E38 — production 2019 and 2050 by product and process
• INSEE, enquête EACEI 2019, for the observed energy consumption by branch

Less of everything the rest of industry makes, branch by branch in the same proportion — metals, minerals, chemistry, paper and the rest — with its fuel, its electricity and its process emissions going down together. Added in 0.30 after students found that the rest of industry could only grow: otherIndustryVolume runs from today's output towards a reindustrialisation, and nothing ran the other way, although these branches carry two thirds of the methane a scenario cannot otherwise get rid of. The top of the range is the one French pathway that contracts industry: ADEME's Génération frugale cuts industrial production by 38% by 2050, because people buy fewer, longer-lived goods. Provisional, because that figure is read from summaries of the study rather than from its industry chapter. And one thing this lever cannot tell apart: a scenario in which France buys less, and one in which France makes less and imports the rest. The territorial account cannot tell them apart either; the first is sufficiency, the second is leakage.

• ADEME (2021), Transition(s) 2050, scenario S1 Génération frugale — industrial production −38% by 2050, as reported in summaries of the study

How much energy each unit of output takes, between today's processes and the 2050 ones. This is where electrification lives: at constant output it takes the electricity of these branches from 68 to 138 TWh while cutting coal and fuel oil to zero. The default is 100% and the volume default is 0%, so the reference scenario reads "the rest of industry modernises at today's output" — the neutral reading, with growth added explicitly.

• Offre_et_demande.xlsx, branch sheets E18–E38 — unit consumption in MWh per tonne, 2019 and 2050

Heat rejected by industrial processes and recovered instead of vented. ADEME puts the recoverable gisement at 15.6 TWh on the 2019 industry, of which 7.7 TWh above 100 °C, and — this is what makes it a real constraint — expresses it against the fuel each sector burns. So the gisement is not a fixed reserve: it shrinks as processes electrify, because there is no combustion left to reject heat from. Recovering waste heat and electrifying heat compete for the same physics, and the model makes them compete.

• ADEME, La chaleur fatale (2017 study, 2021 update)

Cross-cutting energy efficiency — motors, drives, compressed air, insulation, heat integration. RTE, after CEREN, identifies a potential of 21.1% on industrial electricity and 19.8% on fuels, of which about 58% pays back in under three years. The ceiling is branch-specific and applied as such: 11.4% for steel, 15.5% for metals and machinery, 19.3% for paper, 24.1% for minerals, 25.0% for the food industry, 31.1% for chemistry. This lever says how much of that identified potential is actually captured, not how much exists — so it cannot invent efficiency beyond what the study found, which is the point of a ceiling.

• RTE, Bilan prévisionnel — groupe de travail Consommation, after CEREN

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, with a Spanish argument for it rather than a Spanish measurement. 25 gCO₂/kWh encodes "the 2050 gas system is biomethane". The Spanish basis for that is the ELP 2050's own headline — 97% of final energy from renewables in 2050 — and the Hoja de Ruta del Biogás, which sets a national biogas objective this pass did not fetch. What would replace it: that roadmap's 2030 objective extended to 2050 against the Spanish gas demand this model computes, which would say what share of the methane can actually be biogenic. The assumption is stronger in Spain than in France, and it should be argued in the interface rather than inherited: Spain's gas system is large relative to everything else, it is fed by LNG from Algeria, the United States and Nigeria, and Spanish biogas production today is 4.36 TWh against a gas demand an order of magnitude larger.

• MITECO, ELP 2050 — 97% of final energy from renewables in 2050 (executive summary, p. 20) — The qualitative basis for a biogenic 2050 methane assumption. It is not a Spanish emission factor, which is why this entry is provisional.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: 25 gCO₂/kWh for 2050 liquid fuel, on the same reasoning as the methane row. Spain has no published 2050 liquid-fuel emission factor. What would close it: the Spanish share of advanced biofuels and e-fuels in the PNIEC's transport chapter, or the ELP's own liquid-fuel assumption, neither of which states a factor. Spain's liquid demand at the horizon is dominated by aviation and maritime bunkers — 140 TWh of them in 2019, more than road freight — so this factor is worth more here than in France, and it is the least Spanish number in the file.

• MITECO, PNIEC 2023-2030 — the renewable transport-fuel objectives are the nearest Spanish anchor, and they do not state an emission factor

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: 27 gCO₂/kWh is the fossil energy of the French wood chain, from felling to delivery. What would close it: a Spanish life-cycle factor from IDAE or AVEBIOM, or a Spanish entry in an LCA database. Neither was fetched. It should not be assumed equal. Spanish firewood travels further on average than French, Spain imports a larger share of its pellets, and the quantity it multiplies is smaller — 17 TWh against France's 46 — so an error of the same relative size moves a third as much here.

• AVEBIOM — the Spanish biomass association publishes the pellet price index and would be the route to a Spanish chain factor. Not fetched.

Kerosene per passenger-kilometre, improving each year through aircraft renewal, seat density and load factor. Published trajectories converge tightly on 1%/year: ICAO 1.0, ADEME 1.0, T&E 0.9, the UK Committee on Climate Change 0.9, the World Economic Forum's Clean Skies for Tomorrow 1.0, against 2.5 in the more optimistic ICSA figure. The default is 0 because the source workbook uses today's consumption for 2050 — moving the slider to 1 shows what a quarter-century of fleet renewal is worth, and it is worth less than most people expect.

• ICAO, Environmental trends in aviation to 2050 (2019)
• ADEME, Élaboration de scénarios de transition écologique du secteur aérien
• Transport & Environment, Roadmap to decarbonising European aviation (2018)

Passenger-kilometres, compounded over thirty years. The source workbook carries 2020 demand straight through to 2050, which is a growth assumption of zero and a very strong one — no published trajectory says that. For flights departing France the DGAC roadmap gives 1.62%/year falling to 1.19, or 1.8 without a price effect and 0.8 with one; ADEME spans −1.3 to +3.0 depending on scenario and price effect; Eurocontrol gives 3.3 then 1.7. World figures are higher still: ICAO 1.1 to 3.4, Airbus 2.6, Boeing 5.6 falling to 2.5. At 1.5%/year over thirty years traffic grows by 56%, which is worth more than every efficiency gain in the sector combined.

• DGAC, feuille de route de décarbonation de l'aviation
• ADEME, Élaboration de scénarios de transition écologique du secteur aérien
• ICAO environmental trends to 2050; EASA; Eurocontrol; Airbus and Boeing market outlooks

Sustainable aviation fuel from biomass. The published estimates disagree by a factor of six, and which route is assumed matters as much as who estimated it: HEFA from waste oils 600–1 900 €/t, biomass-to-liquid 1 400–2 900, alcohol-to-jet 750–3 900. The default sits mid-range across the three. The width of that range is the honest answer, which is why this is a slider and the range is printed beside it.

• EASA, State of the EU SAF market; European Commission ReFuelEU impact assessment
• ISAE-Supaero, Cost estimation of the use of low-carbon fuels in prospective aviation
• ATAG Waypoint 2050; IEA Advanced Biofuels; Solakivi et al. (2022); O. Massol et al. (2025); DGAC decarbonisation roadmap

Synthetic kerosene from electrolytic hydrogen and captured CO₂. Estimates range from 1 820 €/t (European Commission) to 10 000 (DGAC), with the review's central band at 3 700–6 200. Direct air capture costs more than biogenic CO₂: EASA gives 7 300–8 700 €/t for atmospheric CO₂ against 6 600–7 975 for biogenic.

• EASA and European Commission ReFuelEU Aviation impact assessment
• ISAE-Supaero; ATAG Waypoint 2050; E-Cube; Brynolf et al. (2020); Solakivi et al. (2022); O. Massol et al. (2025)

Everything that is not fuel — aircraft, crew, airport charges, maintenance, overheads — is assumed unchanged in 2050 and is derived from today's ticket through this share. It is the weakest link in the ticket calculation: a 2050 airline may well have a different cost structure, and nothing here models that.

• EASA, European Aviation Environmental Report 2025
• European Commission, study supporting the ReFuelEU Aviation impact assessment (19–33%)

Position on the Spanish agriculture pathway, from the 2024 inventory (42.24 MtCO₂e) to the ELP 2050 level (14.03). The default sits on the strategy, as in France, so the reference scenario is the country's own plan rather than a judgement about it. The ELP does not separate agriculture from waste; the two are split in the PNIEC's own 2030 ratio. See ES.official.yaml, which shows the arithmetic.

• MITECO, ELP 2050, Figura 6.7 — agriculture, waste and other sectors, 48 / 40 / 28 / 19 MtCO₂e at 2020 / 2030 / 2040 / 2050

Position on the Spanish waste pathway, from 17.29 MtCO₂e in 2024 to 5.58 in 2050. Spanish waste emissions are above their 1990 level (13.27) and still rising, where French waste emissions have fallen: Spain landfills far more of its municipal waste than France incinerates, so this pathway asks for a bigger change than its French counterpart even though it starts from a smaller absolute number.

• MITECO, ELP 2050, Figura 6.7, with the agriculture/waste split taken in the PNIEC's 2030 ratio 28 439 : 11 322

A signed magnitude of absorption: 37 MtCO₂e absorbed in 2050 is the ELP's own figure, stated in the same sentence as the 29 MtCO₂e of residual emissions. Positive absorbs. Spain's official pathway weakens its sink, and the slider should make that visible: the observed 2024 LULUCF balance is −51.9 MtCO₂e, the PNIEC's 2030 objective is −43.6, and the ELP's 2050 figure is −37. The default therefore sits below today's observation, which is the opposite of the French arrangement, and a player who wants a stronger sink has to argue for it. The range spans a badly degraded Mediterranean forest (15) to a sink stronger than any year on record (60).

• MITECO, ELP 2050, p. 20 — «la capacidad de absorción de los sumideros naturales en esa fecha será de 37 MtCO2eq»
• MITECO, PNIEC 2023-2030, Tabla 2.4 — 2030 net absorption objective −43 635 ktCO₂eq

Zero, and that is the single most interesting difference between the Spanish and the French games. Spain's published 2050 account closes on natural sinks alone — 37 MtCO₂e absorbed against 29 emitted, so the ELP is net −8 MtCO₂e — and the strategy names no technological removals at all. France's published account implies 43 MtCO₂e a year of capture as a closure residual, and its own controversy table calls the line the largest assumption in the model; the French game opens at 30 and marks the slider red past 20. Spain does not need the line at all. The slider still goes to 30, because a Spanish player should be able to add capture and see what it costs; it starts at zero because nothing Spanish plans it.

• MITECO, ELP 2050, p. 20 and Figuras 6.1-6.7 — 29 MtCO₂e residual, 37 MtCO₂e natural absorption, no technological removals stated

Flagged above 20 MtCO₂e/y absorbed. Twenty megatonnes a year, for Spain alone, is around half of everything the planet currently captures and stores, across every facility in operation — and the ELP 2050 asks for none of it, closing its account on natural sinks alone. Nothing in this model builds the plant, supplies the electricity the capture consumes, or pays for either.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not Spanish data: the rate at which land is built on, in thousand hectares a year. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not Spanish data: the rate at which new forest is planted, in thousand hectares a year. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not Spanish data: the net rate at which permanent grassland is ploughed into arable land. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not Spanish data: the share of the identified agricultural soil-carbon potential taken. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not Spanish data: the volume of wood removed a year, informal firewood included. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not Spanish data: the share of the harvest that becomes sawn timber and panels. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the share of the drained organic soil put back under water. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not Spanish data: which of three published climate cases the forest lives through. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: red meat eaten per person, in carcass-weight equivalent. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: poultry eaten per person, in carcass-weight equivalent. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: dairy eaten per person, as an index on the base year. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: how much of today's edible food waste is cut. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: animal produce exported, as an index on base-year volumes. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: arable crops exported, as an index on the base-year volume. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: mineral nitrogen delivered to the fields, as a share of the base year. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: legumes in the rotation, in million hectares. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the organic share of the arable area. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the share of cattle on a low-methane ration. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the share of manure sent to a digester rather than to a store. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the fossil fuel taken off the farm. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the share of mineral nitrogen made inside the country. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the area of winter cover crop grown for a digester, in million hectares. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the share of crop residues carried off the field for energy. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the arable area growing a first-generation biofuel crop, in million hectares. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the arable area growing a main crop for a digester, in million hectares. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the liquid biofuel the scenario allows itself to import, in TWh a year. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

The observed electric share of Spanish domestic hot water: 15 545.5 TJ of electricity out of 126 795.0 TJ for water heating in 2023, i.e. 12.3% of the energy — but the model's lever is the share of the service, and an electric water heater converts at about twice the efficiency of a gas one on the model's own convention. Correcting for that gives about 25% of the hot water actually delivered. France's figure is 68%. Spanish hot water is a gas and butane business: natural gas 56 578 TJ, oil products (mostly LPG) 39 958, renewables and solar thermal 14 713. Spain has more solar thermal on its roofs than any other large European country and it still heats most of its water with a flame.

• Eurostat, nrg_d_hhq — household water heating by carrier, Spain 2023 — Electricity 15 545.457 TJ, natural gas 56 578.477, oil products 39 957.556, renewables 14 713.486; total 126 795.0 TJ.

The observed electric share of Spanish cooking: 25 038.4 TJ of electricity out of 47 321.3 TJ in 2023, i.e. 52.9% of the energy, and about 70% of the service once the efficiency of an induction hob is set against a gas ring on the model's own convention. France's figure is 61%. Spanish kitchens electrified earlier and further than French ones, and the remaining 9 204 TJ of oil products is bottled butane — a fuel France has almost eliminated from its kitchens and Spain has not.

• Eurostat, nrg_d_hhq — household cooking by carrier, Spain 2023 — Electricity 25 038.419 TJ, natural gas 8 287.669, oil products 9 204.134, renewables 4 791.099; total 47 321.3 TJ.

12.0 TWh — 3.87 residential and 8.13 tertiary — against France's 24, which is the single most counter-intuitive number in the Spanish package: Spain is hotter than France and cools with half the energy, because the French figure carries a much larger tertiary stock and because Spanish residential air conditioning is heavily seasonal and often room-level. The asymmetry France declares is worse here than anywhere: cooling makes a summer peak, Spanish summer peaks are the ones that bind the Spanish system, and the only peak constraint in this model is a winter one. A Spanish edition that took the peak score seriously would have to add one.

Lighting, appliances, screens and servers. It is the lever that has historically delivered — French specific consumption has been roughly flat for a decade while the equipment count rose — and here it is set against the growth lever below, which is the whole point of having both.

The counterweight to appliance efficiency. Data centres and AI are the part of this that is growing fastest and the part the model is least able to source, so it is left as an explicit assumption rather than given a trajectory it cannot defend.

RTE keeps a few GW of combustion capacity in every 2050 scenario, for the windless fortnight that no amount of storage covers. What it burns is a choice: methane, which draws on the same biomethane everything else wants, or hydrogen, which draws on electricity instead and emits nothing at the stack. Hydrogen is much the dearer of the two, and the model charges it: the electrolytic price the industry module already computes, against a methane price. What it does not do is add the electrolysis back into the electricity the mix has to serve — that would be a fixed point the compiler cannot express, since demand sets the mix and the mix would set demand. The extra electricity is reported instead of hidden.

The model assumed this for every tonne of hydrogen until v0.12.0, which was a strong assumption wearing no clothes: 87 TWh of electricity for hydrogen, and no way to ask what a reformer would cost instead.

A reformer burns and reforms methane. In this model 2050 methane is biomethane, so the colour of the hydrogen depends on the colour of the gas — and it draws on the same biomethane pool as everything else, which is the trade-off worth seeing.

ATR concentrates the CO2 in one stream, which is why it captures at 94% where a reformer with post-combustion capture struggles past 60%. On biomethane this goes negative, and that is not a trick of the accounting: the carbon came out of the air last season and is being put underground. It is also the single most contested line in the model — see the controversy tab — because it makes a scenario's arithmetic depend on a biomass supply chain the model does not represent.

Six Spanish mixes, ordered by increasing firm thermal generation — which is the Spanish axis, because the French one does not exist here. There is no nuclear question in Spain: the ordered closure plan retires all seven reactors between 2027 and 2035, and every mix from position 1 to position 5 has zero nuclear. What the slider moves instead is how much dispatchable gas a 2050 Spanish system still runs, from none at all to the 10% the 2030 plan has. Position 3, Distributed Energy 2050, is the default: a published 2050 mix from a pan-European study, with a residual firm fleet so the gasPlantHydrogen lever has something to act on. Position 1 is the national strategy's own outcome and has no firm capacity at all, which is more optimistic than RTE's 100%-renewable M0 and is worth saying. Three of the six are not 2050 mixes. Positions 4 and 5 are 2040 and position 6 is 2030. National Trends+ has no 2050 run — it is the NECP-based scenario and the plans stop earlier — so a 2040 row is the only honest way to offer it. Any label that calls the whole table "2050" is wrong about half of it.

• ENTSO-E / ENTSOG, TYNDP 2024 Scenarios — market-modelling outputs, bidding zone ES00, climate year 2009 (CC-BY 4.0)
• MITECO, PNIEC 2023-2030 Tabla A.19, and ELP 2050 Figura 6.1

The chemistry choice, and the sharpest trade-off in the account. LFP carries almost no cobalt (7 grams per MWh against 27 kg) and a quarter of the nickel, but 4.4 times the lithium — 490 kg per MWh against 111. There is no chemistry that is cheap in every metal at once, which is the point of putting it on a slider. Zero by default because the source scenario's 2050 reference is NMC 811.

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, France 2050 — finance_rate

A household and an industrial investor do not face the same cost of capital. Moving this rate from 4% to 8% raises the building indicator by about a third with no physical change at all, which is why it is a lever and not a hidden constant.

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, carbon.csv — linear to 150 €/tCO₂ in 2050

101.6 €/MWh, the Spanish price for an industrial consumer taking 20 000-69 999 MWh a year, excluding recoverable taxes, first half of 2025; the smaller 2 000-19 999 MWh band pays 111.5. France on the same call pays 92.8 and 116.4, so Spanish and French industry pay within about 10% of each other on the large band — which is itself worth showing, because the Spanish argument for electrifying industry is usually made on cheap solar rather than on cheap tariffs. The two numbers are not the same quantity. France's 70 €/MWh is a POMMES 2050 model output, and this is a 2025 observation used as a 2050 assumption. What would close it: a Spanish 2050 industrial electricity price from the ELP's or the PNIEC's own modelling.

• Eurostat nrg_pc_205 — electricity prices for non-household consumers, ES, 2025-S1, excluding VAT and other recoverable taxes — ES band MWH20000-69999 0.1016 €/kWh and MWH2000-19999 0.1115; FR 0.0928 and 0.1164 on the same call.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: 550 €/m² is an ADEME order of magnitude with no primary publication behind it even in France. Spanish renovation labour and materials are cheaper than French ones, so this number is very likely too high for Spain — the opposite direction from Germany, which is worth saying because the three editions carry the same figure. What would close it: IDAE's aid schedules, which publish reference costs per square metre by measure for the renovation programmes.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml, retrofitCost — carried unchanged — Not a Spanish source. See NOTES.md under Placeholders.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: 200 €/MWh is an unsourced French 2050 pump price for biofuel and e-fuel, taxes included, and the model's own annex calls it the weakest number in the cost layer. Spanish fuel duty is markedly lower than French, so a Spanish pump price built the same way would be lower. What would close it: the CNMC or MITECO fuel price series and a Spanish 2050 renewable-fuel case.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml, liquidFuelPrice — carried unchanged — Not a Spanish source. See NOTES.md under Placeholders.

The passenger sufficiency control. At 100% it removes 45% of passenger travel and takes air traffic from the workbook's implicit 0%/y to -1.5%/y — the two demand assumptions the transport module is most sensitive to, moved together because a scenario that flies as much as today while driving 45% less is not a coherent story about sufficiency.

Moves the 20% of 2020 car demand still served by a liquid- or gas-fuelled car in the reference onto the electric fleet. The rail transfer is left where it is: electrifying the fleet and shifting trips off it are two different decisions, and folding them together would hide which one paid.

The reference already leaves only 10% of road freight thermal, so this is a small lever by construction, and that is the lesson: on the workbook's own trajectory the remaining road-freight emissions are not where the tonnes are. Hydrogen trucks are left alone, because arbitrating between hydrogen and battery is a detailed-view argument, not a coarse one.

Modal shift away from aviation, which is where the transport module's residual emissions concentrate once the fleet is electric. Distinct from "travel less": this one moves the same journeys onto another mode rather than removing them.

The building sufficiency control, in the unit of the lever it drives because it drives only that one. It starts at the reference 5% rather than at zero: the simple view offers effort beyond the reference scenario, never less than it.

As with sufficiency, this is the stock-performance lever shown in its own unit and bounded below by the reference scenario. 65% across the whole stock is the upper end the workbook contemplates, not a technical limit.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

The materials side of the building question, and the one control in the simple view whose whole interest is how far it cannot reach. At 100% the country builds 8 Mm² of housing and 8 of everything else a year instead of 20.4 and 19.9 — the order of magnitude the official housing-need study reaches for the 2040s — and frames 60% of it in timber instead of 12%. Together those take roughly a quarter off national cement demand. They take far less off steel, because new buildings are about a ninth of it; and they cannot touch the third of cement that is roads, buried networks and bridges, nor the third that nobody has attributed. Two ideas in one control is a deliberate departure. Building less and building in timber are different decisions, and the detailed view keeps them apart; here they are bundled because they are the same material choice seen from a distance, and because a simple view that separated them would have spent two of its dozen controls on one question.

Electrification of heating, with the two consequences that make it a real choice rather than a free win. The wood boilers go with the gas ones, because 95% electric plus 46 TWh of wood would allocate more heat than the stock needs; the resistance heaters go into air-water heat pumps, because electrifying on resistance is what makes the winter peak unmanageable. The peak still rises sharply, and that is the point of the control. Pushing sufficiency and renovation at the same time shrinks the heat need under a fixed 95% share, so the building readout may report over-allocated heat; the model reports it rather than absorbing it.

Hot water and cooking are about as much energy again as space heating, and neither is fully electric today. Their observed electric shares are the starting points, 100% the end.

The industrial sufficiency control. Freight demand is driven here rather than in transport on purpose: freight is what material consumption looks like on a road, and a scenario that halves plastic and cement demand while moving the same tonne-kilometres is not consistent. Steel goes from +30% to -40% against 2020, which is the widest swing any single number in the game commands. The output of the rest of industry is not driven, because its scale starts at today's output and has nowhere lower to go.

Every route change the five value chains offer, moved together: H-DRI steel, the CO2 + H2 olefin route and the biogenic carbon it uses, heat pumps for food-industry steam and direct heat, the lowest clinker ratio in range, and capture on what is left. The processes of the rest of industry are not driven, because the reference already sits at 100% of them.

Efficiency rather than sufficiency or fuel switching: the same product, less energy. At 100% it claims the whole potential RTE identifies and recovers all of the recoverable waste heat, neither of which is costless or instantaneous — the cost panel and the annex say what that means.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

The demand end of the food chain, moved as one plate. At 100% red meat falls from 40 to 20 kgec/cap/y — below INRAE's −40% and above ADEME's S1 divide-by-three — poultry from 28 to 18, dairy to 70% of the base year and the edible waste by the SNBC 3's own half. Exports are deliberately left alone: what a country sells is a separate argument from what it eats, and folding them together would let a diet lever cut a herd that is producing for somebody else's plate. The lesson is in the coupling rather than in the total. Two fifths of French beef is a by-product of the dairy herd, so cutting the milk makes the suckler herd grow to meet a beef demand that has not moved; only moving both together shrinks the cattle. A player who moves this control and watches the grassland released is watching the land account answer a food question, which is what the module is for.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

The sink side of the land account. At 100% the forest expands at the 90 kha/y IGN's inventory measures rather than the 15 the SNBC 3 plans, the harvest falls from 60 to 45 Mm³/y, the long-lived share of what is still cut rises from 30 to 35%, and artificialisation stops entirely — the Climat et Résilience law's 2050 destination, on this account's own measure. It is the control that most obviously costs something, and that is the point: the forest takes k out of the living stock for every cubic metre cut, 1.5 tCO₂ in France, so every cubic metre not cut deepens the sink and leaves the boiler. Pushed to the top this control takes about a fifth off the wood the scoreboard scores — 127 TWh to 102 — and a scenario that has also electrified its heating will not notice while one that leaned on wood will. The climate case the forest lives through is not driven: it is a scenario choice rather than an effort, it moves the answer further than any of these four, and it stays a fine lever the simple view draws on its own.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

The field end of the farm. At 100% the mineral dose on the conventional hectares falls to 50% of the base year and half the arable land goes organic, which between them deliver 26% of the 2024 nitrogen — well below the SNBC 3's own −54% and short of TYFA's zero — the legumes reach the 3.0 Mha the rotation studies stop at, and the whole 17.3 MtCO₂/y of soil-carbon practice INRAE itemises is taken. Four consequences are worth watching rather than assuming. The organic half yields two thirds of what it replaces, and since 0.24.0 the conventional half, at half the 2024 dose, keeps 0.79 of its yield — it is below the plateau — so this control costs arable land: the fields the same plates, herd and exports need grow by more than a third, and the crop block reports the shortfall, 4.2 Mha at 100%, against the land account rather than closing it — fertilising less is not free of land, and the page says by how much. Mineral nitrogen is also an industrial decision here: the same tonnage sets the ammonia the chain has to make, so fertilising less is a hydrogen saving as well as a nitrous-oxide one. More legumes raise the nitrogen balance while lowering the emissions — a legume hectare fixes more nitrogen than the mineral fertiliser its credit replaces, and only the difference between the two emission factors makes the net move downwards, so the balance is not a proxy for the tonnes. And the soil-carbon target is a thirty-year rate on a stock that saturates: the practice has to be kept up after 2050 for the carbon to stay where this account puts it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

The supply side of the biomass the rest of the game spends. At 100% the winter cover crops reach 3.0 Mha, the straw taken off the field reaches 30% — Agro-Transfert's ceiling for less than 2.5% of soil carbon lost — and the land growing fuel reaches 1.70 Mha, nearly three times today's and the IGEDD mission's own upper case. Between them they take the methane supply from 70 to about 86 TWh and the domestic liquid supply from 24 to 52. Two things this control does not do. It does not send manure to a digester: manureMethanised sits at 0 in the reference because the abatement it books rests on an enteric/manure split no French inventory publishes, and burying that argument inside an effort scale would be the wrong place for it. And the fuel crops it plants add no mineral nitrogen, because the dose is an intensity on an arable area held at the base year's: a fuel hectare displaces a food hectare that was already fertilised. The crop block counts the displaced food — the fuel hectare is arable land the plates, the herd and the exports can no longer use, and the headroom says by how much — but the fuel hectare itself adds no nitrogen and no nitrous oxide. That is the module's largest structural simplification and it sits directly under this control.

The workbook converts electricity to hydrogen at 60%. POMMES-INDUSTRY uses 45 MWh of electricity per tonne of hydrogen, which is 74%. The model keeps the workbook value so the cost layer and the electricity indicator describe the same hydrogen; hydrogen is therefore about 40% more expensive here than a POMMES-native calculation gives.

• Teaching workbook, "General hypotheses" sheet E11

Electricity in, liquid e-fuel out, across the whole chain: electrolysis, CO2 supply, synthesis and upgrading. Concawe's techno-economic assessment gives 38% when the carbon comes from direct air capture and 44% when it comes from a concentrated industrial source, and 0.4 sits between the two. It is a whole-barrel figure, not a kerosene-only one: Fischer-Tropsch sends roughly a fifth of its liquids to gasoline and diesel, so the electricity behind one tonne of jet fuel alone is higher — about 38 MWh, or 3.2 kWh per kWh burnt. Use this parameter for total liquid demand, which is what the equations do, and do not quote it as an aviation figure.

• Concawe 2022, E-Fuels: a techno-economic assessment of European domestic production and imports towards 2050 (38% DAC, 44% CCU)
• Boigontier & Girard 2024, Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs), MINES Paris - PSL / Zenon Research
• Teaching workbook, "General hypotheses" sheet E10

The CO₂ emitted to make a kilowatt-hour on the Spanish grid in 2020, combustion basis: 40 926 kt of CO₂ from electricity and heat generation over 259 882 GWh of gross generation. France's 79 gCO₂/kWh is a different quantity in a different year, and finding out which was the most useful thing this port did to this entry. It is ADEME Base Carbone's "Électricité, mix moyen, France", 0.0791 kgCO₂e/kWh, sourced from the IEA's CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion — highlights 2013. So it is not a life-cycle factor — the IEA series is combustion in power stations, with no construction, no fuel supply chain and no nuclear front end — and it is not 2020: the edition is 2013 on 2011 data. France's actual 2020 factor on the same combustion basis is 64.5 gCO₂/kWh. The like-for-like Spanish entry in that same ADEME table is 0.238 kgCO₂e/kWh, three times France's. This entry uses 157.5, Spain's actual 2020 figure, because the constant is named for 2020 and a 2011 vintage would be a French error copied rather than a Spanish measurement. The right fix is to recompute France on the same basis in the same pass; until that is done, comparing the two overstates the French advantage by about a fifth. Two perimeter statements. The numerator is all fuel burned in electricity and heat generation, including industrial CHP; Spain has almost no district heat, so for Spain that is effectively electricity, while for France it adds 4.5 g. And the denominator is gross generation, not consumption, so applying the factor to consumed electricity ignores roughly 9% of Spanish network losses — the French constant has exactly the same convention. No life-cycle factor for Spain was found; expect one to land 25 to 45 g above this.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain, EmissionBalance workbook, sheet TI_EHG_E (electricity and heat generation), row Total — 55 368.9 ktCO₂ (2019), 40 925.7 (2020), 40 989.7 (2021). Of the 2020 total, 31 404 is electricity-only plant and 9 522 CHP; heat-only plant is zero in Spain.
• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain, PowerGen workbook, sheet OverviewPG, row 'Total gross electricity prod. (without pumped storage) (GWh)' — 271 029 GWh (2019), 259 882 (2020), 271 091 (2021), giving 204.3, 157.5 and 151.2 gCO₂/kWh. The same arithmetic on France gives 65.9, 64.5 and 66.1.
• ADEME Base Carbone®, 'Électricité — mix moyen', country entries, after IEA CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion — highlights 2013 — France 0.0791 kgCO₂e/kWh, Spain 0.238, Germany 0.461, Italy 0.406, United Kingdom 0.457; uncertainty 10%, validity to December 2017. Retrieved 2026-09-04.

A gas or oil water heater, standing losses included.

• ADEME orders of magnitude for domestic hot water production

Above one because it is not all resistance: a 2050 electric water heater stock is a mix of resistance tanks and heat-pump water heaters, the latter at a COP near 3. Two is the blend assumed here and it is an assumption, not a measurement — the honest range runs from 1.0 if nothing changes to near 3 if the stock is heat pumps. It sets how much electricity electrifying hot water actually costs, so it is worth arguing about.

• ADEME, chauffe-eau thermodynamique — COP de 2,5 à 3,5 selon l'installation

• Standard hob efficiencies; a gas burner loses most of its heat around the pan

Induction. The gap with gas is the widest of any usage in the model.

• Standard induction hob efficiency

The carbon actually in the molecule, released whether it is burned or reformed. Distinct from efGas, which is 25 gCO₂/kWh in 2050 because the model's methane is biomethane and the convention books its carbon against the digester feedstock rather than the flame. Both numbers are needed and they answer different questions. efGas answers "what does burning this count as?"; this one answers "how much carbon is there to capture?" A capture plant removes molecules, not conventions.

• Base Carbone ADEME — combustion du gaz naturel, facteur direct

• Teaching workbook, "Synthesis" sheet S42

• Teaching workbook, "Synthesis" sheet S44

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data. 27 gCO₂/kWh is the fossil energy of the French wood chain, from felling and drying to delivery, and it is national because that chain is. What would close it: a Spanish life-cycle factor from IDAE or AVEBIOM, or a Spanish entry in an LCA database; neither was reachable. Do not assume the two are equal. Spanish firewood travels further on average, Spain imports a larger share of its pellets, and this factor multiplies 17 TWh here against France's 46, so the same relative error moves a third as much.

• app/model/countries/FR/FR.yaml, ef_wood_2020 — the value this carries, and the only reason it is here — Carried, not measured. Declared provisional for exactly that reason.

Coking coal, 94.6 kgCO₂ per GJ, converted at 3.6 GJ/MWh. The workbook declares coal at 0 gCO₂/kWh in its factor table and then charges it at the hydrogen factor, 66.7 gCO₂/kWh, which is neither. This model uses the published factor and removes the double count that resulted — see steel_bf_process_residual.

• IPCC 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, vol. 2 table 1.4 — coking coal, 94.6 kgCO₂/GJ

Blast-furnace/BOF route volume. Spain made 11.9 Mt of crude steel in 2024, 30.7% by the oxygen route and 69.3% electric — almost the mirror image of France (62.7 / 37.3). 11 900 × 0.307 = 3 653 kt. That single line changes the Spanish industry game. Two thirds of Spanish steel is already scrap-based, so the H-DRI lever has a third of the tonnage to work on that it has in France, and the scrap supply constraint the model does not represent becomes the binding one. Cross-check from a second source: JRC-IDEES gives Spanish integrated steelworks 3 901 kt and electric arc 10 284 kt in 2021 — a 27 / 73 split on 14 185 kt, against worldsteel's 31 / 69 on 11 900 kt for 2024. The shares agree; the totals differ by year.

• worldsteel, World Steel in Figures 2025, 'Crude steel production by process, 2024' — Spain 11.9 Mt, oxygen 30.7%, electric 69.3%. France 10.8 (62.7 / 37.3), Germany 37.2 (70.9 / 29.1), Italy 20.0 (10.7 / 89.3), EU-27 129.7 (55.6 / 44.4).
• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain, Industry workbook, sheet ISI, block 'Physical output (kt steel)' — 2021: total 14 185.4 kt, integrated steelworks 3 901.0, electric arc 10 284.4.

11 900 × 0.693 = 8 247 kt. The two route volumes sum to 11 900 kt.

• worldsteel, World Steel in Figures 2025, 'Crude steel production by process, 2024'

The total direct intensity of the integrated route — every source on site, not a process term. It was inherited from the teaching workbook as "the blast furnace's process figure", and under that name it had been counted on top of the coal it mostly is. Re-sourced in 0.27.0, it holds: the IPCC Tier 1 defaults summed over the chain give 1.87 tCO₂/t (1.46 for the converter, which already includes the blast furnace, plus 0.56 per tonne of coke and 0.20 per tonne of sinter); the EU ETS benchmarks, set on the best tenth of European plants, chain to about 1.4; and ArcelorMittal Dunkerque, at 6.8 Mt of steel and about 12 MtCO₂ a year, is at 1.76. The model charges the route's coal its own published factor, so this figure is never booked as such: steel_bf_process_residual keeps the remainder. The limitation: 1.76 and the 0.62 t of coal charged beside it describe a furnace about 20% better than the world average — worldsteel's route average is 780 kg of coal, which at this model's factor alone would release 2.08 t. The two are consistent with each other and should be changed together or not at all.

• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 3, Ch. 4, Table 4.1 p. 4.25 — BOF 1.46, coke 0.56, sinter 0.20 tCO₂/t
• Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/447, Annex — hot metal 1.288, sintered ore 0.157, coke 0.217 allowances/t
• Direction générale des Entreprises (15 January 2024), France 2030 : soutien à la décarbonation d'ArcelorMittal Dunkerque — 6.8 Mt/y, ≈ 12 MtCO₂/y
• worldsteel, Raw materials — 780 kg of metallurgical coal per tonne of BF-BOF steel

What an electric furnace emits on site besides its electricity: the graphite electrodes it burns and the carbon charged to foam the slag and carburise the melt. The IPCC's Tier 1 default, and the floor of the published range — the EU ETS benchmark for carbon steel is 0.215, because it also covers the gas burners and the ladle furnace. It applies to both electric routes, from scrap and from hydrogen-reduced iron, since both end in the same furnace. Until 0.27.0 the model gave these two rows no direct term at all, so the only steel that emitted on site was the blast furnace's.

• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 3, Ch. 4, Table 4.1 p. 4.25 — EAF 0.08 tCO₂/t
• Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/447, Annex — EAF carbon steel 0.215, high-alloy 0.268 allowances/t

DERIVED WITH A FRENCH RATIO, not a Spanish statistic. No Spanish ethylene-and-propylene production figure was reached: Eurostat PRODCOM's ds-056120 is not served by the JSON API and would need the bulk facility. What was reached is JRC-IDEES's basic-chemicals output index, in kilotonnes of ethylene equivalent: Spain 5 099.4 kt in 2021 against France 8 744.2. On France that index is 1.90 times the French olefin_base_production of 3 656 kt, because it covers the whole basic-chemicals branch — chlorine, soda, industrial gases — and not just the crackers. Applying the same ratio to Spain gives 3 656 × 5 099.4 / 8 744.2 = 2 132 kt. It was 2 686 while the French anchor still carried the C4 cut, which 0.23.0 removed. Spain has steam crackers at Tarragona (Repsol and Dow) and Puertollano. What would close it properly: PRODCOM codes 20141130 and 20141150 through the bulk facility, Petrochemicals Europe's country table, or FEIQUE's annual report.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Industry workbook, sheet CHI, row 'Basic chemicals (kt ethylene eq.)', Spain and France — Spain 4 889.4 kt eq. (2019), 5 099.4 (2021); France 9 323.3 (2019), 8 744.2 (2021). An index, not a production statistic — which is why this entry is provisional.

The carbon a tonne of olefin can physically hold, which is the ceiling on any claim that the product stores CO₂. Ethylene and propylene are both 85.63% carbon by mass, so a tonne holds 0.8563 × 44.009 / 12.011 = 3.138 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. Nothing about the route changes it: it is the polymer's own composition. It replaces a coefficient of 4.3 that was 37% above this ceiling. The old figure came from the teaching workbook's "Industry" sheet K48 with no derivation, and it reproduces exactly as the CO₂ fed to the front of the route rather than the carbon locked in the product: 2.988 tonnes of methanol per tonne of olefin (methanol_per_olefin, published) times the 1.3735 tCO₂ per tonne of methanol that stoichiometry demands is 4.105, and 3.138 / 4.105 = 0.765 is an ordinary light-olefin selectivity for a methanol-to-olefins step. The 0.97 tCO₂ of difference leaves as C₄⁺, coke and purge gas; it is consumed by the plant, not stored by the polymer, and crediting it was double-counting the losses as a removal.

• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 3, Ch. 1 §1.3.1 — feedstock carbon is stored, and released when the product is oxidised
• Atomic masses: C 12.011, O 15.999, H 1.008 (IUPAC 2021)

Spanish cement production in 2024, 17.98 Mt, from Robbie Andrew's Global CO₂ emissions from cement production dataset — the source OTHER_COUNTRIES.md names for this entry. It confirms the first pass's reconstruction from Oficemen trade press (18.33 Mt) to within 2%. The constant is cement and the model converts it to clinker itself, through clinkerRate: Spain's ratio is 0.814 against France's 0.639, because Spain exports clinker and France blends more substitute into its cement. A file inheriting France's 60% default would understate Spanish cement process emissions by a quarter. The defect this paragraph used to name is fixed in the shared file: until 0.27.0 cement_process_per_tonne was 0.7925 tCO₂ per tonne of clinker, half again the calcination alone because it silently carried French kiln fuel, and it over-stated Spanish kiln emissions. It is now 0.527, the French inventory's calcination, which is within the IPCC's 0.47–0.53 for any ordinary clinker; Spain's own figure would move it by a few per cent, not by half.

• Andrew, R. M., Global CO₂ emissions from cement production, Zenodo record 20397304, file '1. annual_cement_production.csv' (CC-BY) — Column ESP: 16 176.87 kt (2020), 18 476.94 (2021), 18 444.16 (2022), 17 973.98 (2023), 17 980.35 (2024). Clinker file, column ESP: 15 652.60 (2020), 14 634.30 (2024). Mapping check on France: cement 2020 16 700 kt against the French model's 16 500, a ratio of 1.012.

The decarbonation of the limestone, and nothing else: 6 193 ktCO₂ of calcination in the French inventory for 11 759 kt of clinker in 2020. The neighbouring years give 0.524 (2019) and 0.531 (2021), and it is what stoichiometry predicts: the IPCC's 0.51 × 1.02 for kiln dust = 0.52 for a 65%-lime clinker, 0.53 at 67%. No change of kiln fuel can remove it — only capture, or less clinker. It was 0.7925, and that was a total wearing the wrong name. The old value was 10.2 MtCO₂ over 12.87 Mt of clinker. 10.2 Mt is not the calcination line for any year France has published — that line ran 6.19 to 6.81 over 2015–2021 — but it is inside the range of the whole cement industry's CO₂, calcination and kiln fuel. And 12.87 Mt was not an observation: it is 16 500 × 0.78, this model's own cement anchor times the top of its own clinkerRate slider. The kiln fuel is charged separately through the energy account, so it was emitted twice — and carbonCapture, which multiplies this term, was capturing fuel CO₂ under a name that said it could not. The limitation. 0.527 is a French fleet average for one year, and it moves with the lime content of the clinker and with how much of the lime comes from slag or ash instead of carbonate: the IPCC's range is 0.47 to 0.53. It is also domestic clinker; about a quarter of the clinker behind French cement is calcined abroad, outside this perimeter.

• Conseil national de l'industrie / DGE (May 2023), Feuille de route de décarbonation de la filière Ciment, Tableau 2-1 p. 7 — calcination 6 809 / 6 193 / 6 489 ktCO₂ in 2019 / 2020 / 2021 (SECTEN, GEREP)
• France Ciment / SFIC, Le ciment en chiffres 2022, p. 4 — clinker 13 005 / 11 759 / 12 222 kt in 2019 / 2020 / 2021
• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 3, Ch. 2, Eq. 2.4 p. 2.12 — EF = 0.51 × 1.02 = 0.52 tCO₂/t clinker
• See docs/industry/steel_and_cement_base.md, §4

What a French kiln burns to make a tonne of clinker: 3 830 MJ in 2021, down from 3 942 in 2015. It closes against the roadmap's own statement that the sector burned 13 TWh of heat in 2021 for 12 222 kt of clinker — three published quantities, one identity, no residual. The sector aims at 3 600 MJ in 2030 and 3 500 in 2050, which is the 9% the industrial efficiency lever can take off. It replaced 0.700 in 0.29.0, the teaching workbook's figure, a third short.

• Feuille de route de décarbonation de la filière Ciment (May 2023), Tableau 3-1 p. 12 — 3 942 MJ/t (2015), 3 830 (2021), 3 600 (2030), 3 500 (2050); p. 8 — 13 TWh of heat in 2021

The biomass share of the waste a French kiln burns: 52% in 2021, from 49% in 2015 — animal meal, wood waste, sludge — where the rest is tyres, solvents, oils and plastic-rich refuse-derived fuel. The biomass half is charged to the wood carrier; the fossil half goes with the coke and the coal, whose emission factor it shares within a few per cent. The sector aims at 60% by 2050; this keeps the observed share, because a higher one needs a biomass supply the model would have to find somewhere.

• Feuille de route de décarbonation de la filière Ciment (May 2023), Tableaux 3-2 and 3-3 p. 12 — substitution rate 38% (2015), 44% (2021), 85% (2050); biomass share of the waste 49%, 52%, 60%

1.5 MtCO₂ of fossil carbon in 2019 from the incineration of municipal waste, all of which has recovered energy since 2004 and is booked in energy, 1A1a. 2.2 Mt of waste were burned, a tenth of Spain's municipal waste, where nearly half still goes to landfill. Industrial waste burned with energy recovery adds 0.08 Mt and is left out, as the French figure leaves it out. The plastic share of it is not published, and the French 95% is carried across.

• MITECO, Informe de Inventarios GEI 1990–2024 (edición 2026), Tabla 7.6.3 p. 549 — 1.483 MtCO₂ fossil (2019); Tabla 7.6.10 p. 551 — 2.221 Mt incinerated; p. 549 — booked in 1A1a

How much of an incinerator's fossil CO₂ is plastic: 95%. French residual household waste is 14.7% plastic by mass, 2 410 kt a year (ADEME, MODECOM 2017). At the IPCC's defaults — plastics are 75% carbon and all of it fossil — that is 6.63 MtCO₂. Everything else in the bin that carries fossil carbon adds 0.35: textiles 0.15 (20% of their carbon is fossil), nappies and other hygiene products 0.12, shoes and leather 0.06, soiled paper 0.02. 6.63 / 6.98 = 0.95. It is what makes plasticReduction reach the incinerator, and it is why the other 5% does not move with it. The limitation: the composition is household waste, and the fleet also burns commercial waste, which is if anything more plastic; the composites and small appliances — plastic as well — are left out rather than guessed, which errs low.

• ADEME (2019), MODECOM 2017, Campagne nationale de caractérisation des déchets ménagers et assimilés, p. 16 — OMR composition: plastics 14.7% (2 410 kt), textiles 3.0% (497 kt), nappies 691 kt, other hygiene 496 kt, soiled paper 1 095 kt, shoes 121 kt, leather goods 34 kt
• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5, Ch. 2, Table 2.4 — dry matter, carbon and fossil-carbon fractions: plastics 100/75/100%, textiles 80/50/20%, nappies 40/70/10%, rubber and leather 84/67/20%, paper 90/46/1%

Biogenic over total in the inventory's information item on waste incineration with energy recovery, 2019: 1.924 Mt biogenic against 1.563 fossil. It was 50.3% in 2024.

• Spain, CRT submission to the EU, edition 2026, Table 1.A(a)s4, information item on waste incineration with energy recovery — 1.924 Mt biogenic, 1.563 Mt fossil CO₂ (2019)

The fossil CO₂ a tonne of plastic releases when it burns: 75% carbon, all of it fossil, times 44/12. It converts the plastic part of the incinerators' CO₂ back into tonnes, which is what a recycling line receives and draws its electricity on.

• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5, Ch. 2, Table 2.4 — plastics: dry matter 100%, carbon 75%, fossil fraction 100%; the same 2.75 is the factor FNADE/FEDENE (2023) attributes to Citepa

Sorting, washing, extruding: the JRC gives 0.3 to 0.7 MWh of electricity a tonne for mechanical recycling and next to no heat. The middle is taken. Chemical recycling by pyrolysis would need more, and no inventory of it is public.

• JRC (2023), Environmental and economic assessment of plastic waste recycling, EUR 31423, PDF p. 54

Steam raised by the Spanish food, drink and tobacco industry: 16.35 TWh of final energy in 2019, from JRC-IDEES's process decomposition of the branch. France's figure is 21.876 TWh, so Spain's food industry uses three quarters of the steam France's does while being larger by turnover — the branch is Spain's biggest manufacturing sector and it is less steam-intensive, because more of it is fresh produce, olive-oil pressing and wine, and less of it is dairy and sugar. Provisional because the mapping over-states France by 31%. The same three IDEES blocks give 28.62 TWh for France in 2019 against the French model's 21.876. The French value comes from the teaching workbook and its perimeter is not documented, so it cannot be said which is right; what can be said is that the Spanish number is IDEES's own complete steam total. Taking steam processing alone gives 15.06 TWh for Spain and 26.35 for France, the same 20% gap, so the choice of block does not explain it.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain, Industry workbook, sheet FBT_fec, 2019 column — 'Food: Steam processing' 1 294.68 ktoe, 'Food: Steam drying' 93.55, 'Food: Steam cooling' 17.68; 1 405.83 ktoe × 0.01163 = 16.352 TWh. Branch total 31.035 TWh. Reproducible with extract/industry.py.

Direct heat — ovens, specific process heat, thermal drying, and the low-enthalpy heat that warms the plant itself — in the Spanish food, drink and tobacco industry: 5.47 TWh of final energy in 2019. This mapping is trustworthy: run on France it gives 10.174 TWh against the French model's 10.693, a ratio of 0.951, and on France's 2021 column it gives 10.699 — the French constant to three digits. That is the closest agreement anywhere in this package between an IDEES reconstruction and a teaching-workbook value, and it is why this entry is published where the steam one beside it is not.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain, Industry workbook, sheet FBT_fec, 2019 column — 'Food: Oven (direct heat)' 161.31 ktoe, 'Food: Specific process heat' 134.48, 'Food: Thermal drying' 106.30, 'Low-enthalpy heat' 68.44; 470.53 ktoe × 0.01163 = 5.472 TWh.

DERIVED WITH A FRENCH RATIO. The Eurostat energy balance has no hydrogen row for the food industry in any country and JRC-IDEES inherits that, so the source that closed the two entries above cannot close this one. France's 0.138 TWh comes from a national survey. Scaled by the size of the two branches — Spain 31.892 TWh of final energy in 2021 against France's 61.659 — it gives 0.071 TWh. It is 0.2% of the Spanish food industry's energy, so nothing turns on it; it is carried rather than zeroed because zero would say the industry uses no merchant hydrogen, which is not known either. Gasnam or AeH2 would say what it actually is.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Industry workbook, sheet FBT_fec, branch totals — Spain 2 742.2 ktoe (31.892 TWh) and France 5 302.6 ktoe (61.659 TWh) in 2021 — The ratio 0.5172 applied to the French 0.138 TWh. Not a Spanish measurement.

One, exactly, and that is the finding rather than a placeholder. The constant is observed heat over the stock table's own Σ(surface × surfacic need). France's 0.65284 is not a physical coefficient: it is the gap between a normative surfacic need and what French dwellings actually consume, the effect the buildings literature calls prebound. The French table carries normative needs, so it needs the correction. The Spanish building_segment is built the other way round: its surfacic needs are JRC-IDEES's measured useful thermal energy service for space heating, divided by the census floor area of the segment that consumed it and normalised to the 2000-2020 mean heating degree-days. A measured need needs no prebound correction, so the calibration is 1 by construction, and the number to check is not this coefficient but the table's total. What the table lands on: 86.75 TWh of space-heating need in a normal year, 62.69 residential and 24.06 tertiary, against France's 359.34. Spain's stock is 43% of France's floor area in these tables and needs 24% of its heat — 1 757 heating degree-days against 2 339, plus a fifth of the dwellings with no heating installation at all. A country that inherits France's 0.65284 silently cuts its heating demand by a third. That is the argument for making this a derived equation, and Spain is the case that proves it.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain, Residential sheet RES_hh_tes and Tertiary sheet SER_hh_tes, row 'Space heating' — Residential 5 158.88 ktoe useful (2021) = 59.998 TWh; services 2 070.3 ktoe = 24.078 TWh. Relative heating degree-days 0.9466, so the normal-year needs are 63.381 and 24.260 TWh, less 0.888 TWh of auxiliary circulation electricity. Reproducible with extract/building.py.
• Eurostat, nrg_d_hhq — Spanish household space heating, all carriers — 224 986.8 TJ (2021) = 62.50 TWh of final energy, and 196 805.0 TJ (2023) = 54.67 TWh — above the need, as it must be with boiler efficiencies below one.

PLACEHOLDER — the French anchor rescaled, not a Spanish measurement. No Spanish TSO publishes the electric-space-heating share of the winter peak. Red Eléctrica publishes the whole-system peninsular peak — 40.5 GW instantaneous on 11 January 2024 at 20-21h — and no decomposition by end use. What is done here is what OTHER_COUNTRIES.md recommends when no TSO publishes the split: keep the ratio, rescale the anchor. The model's own building_peak_load_2020 — the stock's electric heating demand at its own peak efficiencies — is 52.17 TWh-equivalent for the French stock and 15.48 for the Spanish, a ratio of 0.2967. France's 40 GW anchor times that ratio is 11.9 GW. The gigawatts-per-TWh-equivalent conversion is therefore identical in the two countries, which is the honest reading: the Spanish figure says how the Spanish stock compares with the French one, not what a Spanish meter would show. And Spain's peak may not be a winter peak at all. The 2024 peninsular maximum was in winter, but the summer maximum is close behind, cooling already takes 3.87 TWh of residential and 8.13 TWh of services electricity, and the model has no summer constraint. A Spanish player can pass this indicator while building a system that fails in August.

• Red Eléctrica, Informe del Sistema Eléctrico Español 2024 — máximos anuales de demanda — Peninsular winter instantaneous maximum 40.5 GW, 11 January 2024, 20-21h; hourly maximum 38 199 MWh; gross demand 248 811 GWh, +0.9%. No decomposition by end use, which is why the anchor is rescaled rather than read.

CRF 1A3, fuel combustion in transport, 2024. Spanish transport emissions are 54% above their 1990 level (58.65 MtCO₂e), where French ones are level with theirs. Transport is a third of Spain's whole inventory and it is the sector that has not turned.

• Eurostat, env_air_gge — Spanish national inventory (2026 submission), GHG, MIO_T

CRF 1A4a + 1A4b, commercial-institutional and residential combustion, 2024. Spanish buildings emit 23.5 MtCO₂e against France's 56.1 — 42% of the French level for 70% of the population. That is climate and gas penetration, not virtue, and it changes which levers matter: the Spanish building game is worth less than a quarter of what the French one is.

• Eurostat, env_air_gge — Spain, CRF 1A4a 9.46230 and 1A4b 14.04182 MtCO₂e in 2024

CRF 1A2 (32.99109) plus CRF 2, industrial processes and product use (20.32898), 2024.

• Eurostat, env_air_gge — Spain, 2024

The ELP 2050's industry bar, 7 MtCO₂e from 72 in its base year, plus its share of the strategy's undifferentiated "otros" row. Spain is one of the few EU countries that publishes a 2050 figure sector by sector.

• MITECO, ELP 2050, Figura 6.6 — industry 72 / 62 / 27 / 7 MtCO₂e at 2020 / 2030 / 2040 / 2050 — The 0.261503 added here is the industry share of the ELP's 1 MtCO₂e 'otros' row, split in the PNIEC's own 2030 proportions. ES.official.yaml shows the arithmetic.

CRF 1A4c (8.98985) plus CRF 3, agriculture (33.24879), 2024.

• Eurostat, env_air_gge — Spain, 2024

The ELP does not separate agriculture from waste: their 19 MtCO₂e in 2050 is split in the PNIEC's own 2030 ratio, 28 439 : 11 322, and agriculture takes the residual after the "otros" allocation.

• MITECO, ELP 2050, Figura 6.7, with the split shown in ES.official.yaml

CRF 5, waste, 2024 — above the 1990 level of 13.27 and above France's 15.30 in absolute terms, on 70% of the population. Spain landfills far more of its municipal waste than France does.

• Eurostat, env_air_gge — Spain, 2024

The waste share of the ELP's combined agriculture-and-waste bar, in the PNIEC's 2030 ratio.

• MITECO, ELP 2050, Figura 6.7

CRF 1A1 (36.88418) plus 1B, fugitive emissions from fuels (3.75967), plus 1A5, other combustion not elsewhere specified (0.33833), 2024. 1B and 1A5 are booked to energy here and that is a stated choice: the proposed mapping left both unassigned, and the six sectors would then fall 4.10 MtCO₂e short of the published gross total. Fugitive emissions are the energy supply industry's own losses, which is where Citepa's SECTEN puts them in the French file too.

• Eurostat, env_air_gge — Spain, 2024

The ELP's electricity bar is zero in 2050 — the sector is 100% renewable — so what is left is the energy share of the "otros" row.

• MITECO, ELP 2050, Figura 6.1 — electricity 57 / 21 / 7 / 0 MtCO₂e, with «SALIDA CARBÓN» before 2030 and «SALIDA NUCLEAR» before 2040

CRF 4, land use, land-use change and forestry, 2024. Negative is a sink.

• Eurostat, env_air_gge — Spain, CRF4, 2024

The ELP's own 2050 absorption, stated in the same sentence as the 29 MtCO₂e of residual emissions. Spain's official pathway weakens its sink: −51.9 observed in 2024, −43.6 as the 2030 objective, −37 in 2050.

• MITECO, ELP 2050, p. 20

Zero, and it is a finding rather than a gap. Spain's published 2050 account closes on natural sinks alone: 37 MtCO₂e absorbed against 29 emitted, so the ELP is net −8 MtCO₂e. The strategy names no technological removals. France's file carries −43 MtCO₂e as a transparent closure residual and its own controversy table calls it the largest assumption in the model; Spain does not need it, and saying so is a good way to show a student what that French number is doing.

• MITECO, ELP 2050, p. 20 and Figuras 6.1-6.7 — no technological removal appears in any sector bar or in the totals

The national 2050 gross target: a maximum of 29 MtCO₂e, −90% on 1990. The constant id is French-branded and is kept because equations.yaml reads it by name; read it as "the national strategy's gross total at the horizon".

• MITECO, ELP 2050, p. 20 — «Se pasa de los 334 millones de toneladas de CO2 equivalente en 2018 a un máximo de 29 MtCO2eq en 2050»

What the model represents of the Spanish industry sector, on the inventory's basis — combustion at the stack plus process emissions, with electricity and hydrogen excluded because the inventory books those to the energy sector. 24.32 MtCO₂e from the five value chains (cement 11.77, steel 7.60, food heat 4.95, ammonia and olefins negligible on their 2020 routes) and 19.49 from the other branches (15.49 from 0.64 TWh of coal, 11.52 of oil and 53.87 of gas, plus 4.00 of process emissions). Moved in 0.27.0, by the shared file and not by Spanish data. It was 45.52. Cement fell by 3.87, because the shared calcination factor dropped from 0.7925 to 0.527 when it stopped carrying French kiln fuel; steel rose by 0.82, because the two process terms the model books — the blast furnace's remainder and, new, the electric furnace's electrodes — were added to a sum that had left them out. The chain part is recomputed by hand with industry_covered's own arithmetic: the JRC-IDEES workbooks the rest of the function reads are not kept in the repository, and the rest does not depend on anything that changed. And moved again in 0.29.0, when the kiln's fuel left the shared chain row for the fleet's measured heat per tonne: cement 10.42 → 11.77. The waste share that splits it is France's 2020 one, 43%, because Spain's own has not been sourced. Against the inventory's own industry line of 53.32 MtCO₂e, the model covers 43.81 and the difference of +9.5 is construction, refining, mining, F-gases and metal-process emissions, none of which the model has. France's difference is now about zero, −0.1, but for reasons of its own — its industry_other comes from a survey that includes things the Spanish extraction excludes — so the two diagnostics are still not comparable.

• extract/industry.py, function `industry_covered` — the arithmetic, reproducible — Spanish volumes and Spanish energy; the per-tonne intensities and the 2020 emission factors are the shared technology file's.

PLACEHOLDER — French ratio carried, applied to Spanish structure, and carried deliberately. RTE, after CEREN, puts the fuel-side energy-efficiency potential of French industry at 19.8%. It is a percentage of fuel burned, not a stock, so it travels better than most things in this file: the physics of motors, compressed air, heat integration and insulation is not national, and the branch mix that would make it national is handled separately in the post table. What is French about it is the starting point — the efficiency already captured. Spanish industry's specific consumption is not French industry's, so the remaining potential is not identical either. The Spanish replacement is IDAE's sectoral efficiency studies or the audits collected under Real Decreto 56/2016; neither was fetched.

• RTE, Bilan prévisionnel — groupe de travail Consommation, after CEREN (a French study, carried)

42.8 MJ/kg, the standard lower heating value of jet A-1.

• Standard lower heating value of aviation kerosene

The anchor for today's ticket. Everything that is not fuel is derived from it through the fuel share of operating cost, so an error here moves the whole non-fuel block.

• EASA, European Aviation Environmental Report 2025, fuel price 2023

Combustion only — neither the upstream chain nor non-CO₂ effects.

• ICAO; corroborated by the US Energy Information Administration

2019 to 2050. Unlike France, Spain has one aviation base year, not two: both the service demand and the consumption per passenger-kilometre come from the same JRC-IDEES 2019 column, so the demand and efficiency horizons are the same 31 years. France separates them — 30 and 26 — because its demand comes from a 2020 workbook and its efficiency from a 2024 statistic.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain, Transport workbook, sheet TrAvia_act, 2019 column — the base year of every aviation row in this package

2019 to 2050, the same horizon as the demand row and for the same reason.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain, Transport workbook, sheet TrAvia_ene, 2019 column

All the jet fuel Spain burns — 2 378 ktoe of domestic aviation plus 4 891 of international bunkers, 7.10 Mt of kerosene in 2019 — divided by all the passenger-kilometres flown from Spanish airports, 256 049 Mpkm. Deliberately uncorrected, as the French entry is: it carries the freight in the holds and the real load factors, which is why it is above the per-passenger-kilometre figure the model's own aviation rows imply. The _2024 in the name is wrong for Spain and the value is 2019. JRC-IDEES stops at 2021, and 2020-2021 are Covid years in which the ratio jumps to 33 g/pkm because the fuel falls more slowly than the traffic. Provisional because the same calculation on France gives 35.34 g/pkm for 2019 against the French constant's 29.28 for 2024, a ratio of 1.207. Part of that is five years of fleet renewal and part is that DGAC's passenger-kilometre perimeter is not Eurostat's departing-flight basis.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain, EnergyBalance workbook, sheets FC_TRA_DAVI_E and INTAVI, and Transport workbook, sheet TrAvia_act — 2 378.4 + 4 890.5 = 7 268.9 ktoe (2019) = 7 104 kt of kerosene at 11.9 kWh/kg; 33 800.9 + 140 691.6 + 81 556.0 = 256 048.5 Mpkm.

Lower heating values, used to turn POMMES prices per tonne into prices per MWh.

• Standard lower heating values for hard coal, natural gas and hydrogen

• Standard lower heating value of methane

• Standard lower heating value of hydrogen

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, import_hourly.csv, France 2050

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, import_hourly.csv, France 2050

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, import_hourly.csv, France 2050

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, import_hourly.csv, France 2050

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, import_hourly.csv, France 2050

Household band DC (2 500-4 999 kWh/year), all taxes and levies included, mean of the two 2024 semesters: 0.2436 and 0.2408 €/kWh. France's figure is 260 €/MWh.

• Eurostat, nrg_pc_204 — electricity prices for household consumers, Spain, band KWH2500-4999, tax I_TAX, EUR/kWh — 2024-S1 0.2436, 2024-S2 0.2408; mean 0.2422 €/kWh = 242.2 €/MWh.

Household band D2 (20-199 GJ/year), all taxes and levies included, mean of the two 2024 semesters: 0.0858 and 0.0901 €/kWh. France's figure is 134 €/MWh — Spanish households pay two thirds of the French gas price, which is one reason gas holds so much of the Spanish heat and hot-water market, and why electrification is a harder sell here on cost alone.

• Eurostat, nrg_pc_202 — gas prices for household consumers, Spain, band GJ20-199, tax I_TAX, EUR/kWh — 2024-S1 0.0858, 2024-S2 0.0901; mean 0.08795 €/kWh = 88.0 €/MWh.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data. 77.5 €/MWh is the Propellet index for French bulk pellets. AVEBIOM publishes the Índice de precios del pellet doméstico for Spain, which is the exact analogue; it was not reachable. Expect the Spanish figure to be lower: Spanish pellet prices have run below French ones for a decade, and the wood volume this multiplies is a third of France's, so it is a small number twice over.

• AVEBIOM, Índice de precios del pellet doméstico en España — the source that would replace this

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv

Structural concrete dosages run roughly 250 to 400 kg a cubic metre, and 300 is the middle of the structural range. It is not the 266 kg a cubic metre that the cement-and-concrete literature uses for "béton équivalent": that figure is a whole-economy bookkeeping factor that already absorbs mortars, renders, screeds and bagged cement, and applying it to building cement alone overstates the concrete by about seven tenths. Used only to express the construction module's cement as a concrete tonnage in the materials account; no emission depends on it.

• Usual structural concrete dosage range; cross-checked against The Shift Project's 266 kg/m³ béton-équivalent factor, which is a different perimeter

Ordinary reinforced structural concrete. Presentation only, like the dosage above.

• Standard value for ordinary reinforced concrete, used in the comparative life-cycle assessment this module's timber coefficients come from

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv

The cement kiln fuel appears in the cost model but NOT in the physical model, which gives cement only its grinding electricity. Cement combustion CO₂ is therefore missing from the emissions account — a known defect of the workbook, recorded here rather than silently patched.

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv, solid_fuels mode 1

What an amine capture plant on a cement stack draws, per tonne of clinker, when it captures 95% of the stack: the heat that regenerates the solvent, raised electrically, plus the compression and the fans. Per tonne captured it is 0.54 / (0.95 × 0.86) = 0.66 MWh, which is where the published figures put it: an advanced solvent needs 2.3 to 3.3 GJ of heat a tonne at the reboiler, and compression to 150 bar another 132 kWh. A cement works has no steam to spare, unlike an incinerator, so the heat has to be raised, and since 0.32.0 the model raises it with electricity the power system has to supply. The capture plant treats the whole stack, the biogenic CO₂ of the kiln's waste included, so this is charged per tonne of clinker rather than per fossil tonne.

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv — reference_plant_CCS less reference_plant
• Raillard-Cazanove (2024), PhD thesis, Table 2.11 p. 43, after Quevedo Parra & Romano (2023) — MEA capture on a cement kiln: 270 €/t clinker of capacity, 95% captured, 0.54 MWh/t clinker
• Bui et al. (2018), Carbon capture and storage (CCS): the way forward, Energy Environ. Sci. 11, 1062, Table 4 — reboiler heat 3.6–4.0 GJ/tCO₂ for MEA, 2.3–3.3 for advanced solvents
• Keith et al. (2018), A Process for Capturing CO₂ from the Atmosphere, Joule 2, 1573, Table 1 — compression 1 to 150 bar, 132 kWh/tCO₂

The capture rate at which cement_capture_extra_electricity was measured. The lever's share of the stack is divided by it, so the plant draws its published figure exactly at 95% and proportionally less below.

• Raillard-Cazanove (2024), PhD thesis, Table 2.11 p. 43, after Quevedo Parra & Romano (2023)

The biogenic CO₂ the biomass half of a kiln's waste releases — animal meal, wood waste, sludge — at the IPCC's default for "other primary solid biomass", 100 t a terajoule. It is never counted in the emissions; it is the tonnage a capture plant takes with the fossil, and so what the transport and storage of cement capture are charged on.

• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 2, Ch. 2, Table 2.2 — other primary solid biomass, 100 000 kgCO₂/TJ

What capture costs an incinerator in electricity, per tonne captured, fossil and biogenic alike. The plant has its own steam: the IEAGHG's two reference plants, 20 MWe each, extract 40 to 45% of the turbine's steam at 6 bar to regenerate the solvent at 3 GJ a tonne, which costs them 6.0 and 6.8 MWe, and compression and liquefaction take 2.8 and 3.2 MWe more. Over 27.9 and 31.8 t captured an hour, both come to 0.315 MWh a tonne, and both halve the plant's net output. The electricity an incinerator no longer exports is electricity the mix has to produce, so the model books it as a demand. Where the plant feeds a heat network a heat pump can win back part of it; the IEAGHG's third case does, and this does not.

• IEAGHG (2020), CCS on Waste to Energy, Technical Report 2020-06, Section A, sheet 60 of 84 — cases 1 and 2: 6 + 2.8 MWe and 6.8 + 3.2 MWe for 90% capture of 31 and 35.3 tCO₂/h

The capture plant on an incinerator — its capital and the running costs that are not energy — per tonne captured. The energy is charged apart, at the industrial electricity price, and so are transport and storage. Provisional, and the evidence is thin at both ends. The one techno-economic study of a retrofit gives a cost of capture of 90 to 156 € a tonne for plants of 3 to 12 kt a year, a tenth of a French incinerator. The one plant being built, Oslo's Klemetsrud, budgets 8.4 billion kroner at P50 for 350 kt a year, about 720 M€: at this model's 8% over 25 years that is close to 200 € a tonne in capital alone, for a first of its kind with its own harbour terminal. The cement plant in this model costs under 50 € a tonne on the same basis, from a gas twice as concentrated. 100 sits between them.

• Bertone et al. (2024), Techno-Economic Assessment of Amine-Based Carbon Capture in Waste-to-Energy Incineration Plant Retrofit, Sustainability 16(19) 8468 — 90–156 €/tCO₂ at 12 and 3 kt/y
• IEA Bioenergy (2025), Full-scale Waste-to-Energy CCS in Norway, BECCUS Phase 2 — Klemetsrud: CAPEX P85 NOK 9.5 bn, P50 8.4 bn; OPEX NOK 0.31 bn/y; 350 kt/y captured; 1 € ≈ 11.6 NOK (March 2025)

Shipping or piping a captured tonne to a storage site and injecting it. 50 € is the figure France Stratégie retains for French industry. Models that assume a shared network at scale go lower — 17 to 21 € in the IND-OPT study — and the one French cluster costed so far, Dunkirk, comes out at 120 to 160 €, because the CO₂ leaves by ship for a reservoir in the North Sea. Charged on every tonne stored, biogenic ones included, since a ship does not sort them either.

• France Stratégie (May 2023), Les coûts d'abattement — partie 5, Industrie, ch. 4 §3, pp. 38–40 — transport and storage at 50 €/t stored
• Raillard-Cazanove, Knibiehly & Girard (2025), J. Cleaner Production 508, 145511 — transport and storage 21.2 €/t (2030), 17.2 (2050)
• ADEME (2024), ZIBAC Dunkerque — 120–160 €/t

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv, steam methane reforming

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, emission_factor

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv, methanol-to-olefins

Spain's whole residential plus services floor area, kept — as in France — as a cross-check rather than as an input: building_surface_coverage reports the model's heated stock (3 926.5 Mm²) against it, 84.9%. France's ratio is 87%. Residential is all 26.62 million conventional dwellings, occupied and not, at the census mean useful floor area of their building type: 9.245 M houses at 117.44 m² plus 17.047 M flats at 76.79 m² = 2 394.6 Mm². The model's own stock covers only the 19.09 M occupied ones, which is why the coverage is below one — 8.09 M Spanish dwellings are empty or second homes, a fifth more than in France in relative terms. The services half, 2 230.8 Mm², is the weakest number in the building block. JRC-IDEES puts Spanish services floor space at 140.0 m² per service-sector employee against 43.6 for France and 102.6 for Germany, in the same dataset. If it is too high, this constant and the six tertiary rows of building_segment move together and the heat need does not.

• Eurostat census 2021, cens_21dwob_r3 and cens_21dwbnr_r3 — Spanish dwellings by occupancy status, type of building and useful floor space — All conventional dwellings 26 623 706 (one-dwelling 8 022 454, two-dwelling 1 222 612, three-or-more 17 047 030); occupied 18 536 615. Mean useful area 117.44 m² for one- and two-dwelling buildings, 76.79 for flats, 89.0 overall — which is INE's own published mean.
• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain, Tertiary workbook, sheet SER_summary — 2 230 797 thousand m² in 2021

Demand reduction achieved by one deep renovation, used to convert the average stock improvement into an equivalent number of deep renovations.

• ADEME orders of magnitude for a BBC-rénovation-level retrofit

• Conventional lifetime for building-envelope work

• Conventional lifetime for a residential heat pump

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: 80 €/m² installed for an air-to-water heat pump, stated in France as the middle of a 60-100 range. Spanish installation labour is cheaper and Spanish dwellings are slightly smaller, so the per-square-metre figure is probably lower and the per-dwelling one closer. IDAE's Plan de Recuperación aid schedules publish reference costs per installed kilowatt for aerotermia, which would close it.

• IDAE, reference costs for aerotermia under the building-renovation aid programmes — the source that would replace this

Spain's reduced VAT rate on qualifying renovation and repair work in dwellings is 10%, against a standard rate of 21% and against France's 5.5%. A renovation therefore carries almost twice the tax margin it does in France, which moves the building cost indicator by about 4%.

• Ley 37/1992 del Impuesto sobre el Valor Añadido, art. 91.Uno.2.10º — tipo reducido para ejecuciones de obra de renovación y reparación en edificios destinados a viviendas — NOT VERIFIED AGAINST THE BOE IN THIS PASS. The rate and the article are widely quoted and the value is declared provisional for exactly that reason. The consolidated text would also state the conditions — the work must not be construction or extension, and materials must not exceed 40% of the base — under which the 21% rate applies instead.

18.873 million Spanish households in 2019, the package's base year. France has 31.377 million on 1.43 times the population, so a Spanish household is larger: 2.49 people against 2.18. Every per-household cost the model prints is therefore spread over fewer, bigger households here.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain, Residential workbook, sheet RES_summary, row 'Number of households' — 18 872 963 in 2019, on a population of 46 937 060; 19 089 285 in 2021. Cross-check: the PNIEC's own dwelling projection (Tabla A.4) gives 18 754 thousand for 2020, 0.6% apart.

DERIVED WITH A FRENCH RATIO. INE's Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares was not fetched, so the French INSEE budget — 2 541 €/household/year for buying, insuring and maintaining a car — is scaled by the ratio of the two countries' household consumption expenditure: 33 728 €2015 per Spanish household against 39 660 per French one, a ratio of 0.850. 2 541 × 0.850 = 2 161. This assumes a Spanish household spends the same share of its budget on a car as a French one. It plainly does not — Spanish car ownership per household is lower and the fleet is older — so this is an order of magnitude, not a statistic. COICOP group 07 of the EPF would close it.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Residential workbook, sheet RES_summary, row 'Household consumption expenditure per household (€ at 2015 prices)' — Spain 33 728.5 and France 39 660.3 in 2021. The French budget itself is INSEE Première 1855 (2017): purchase 1 459, insurance 518, maintenance 564.

DERIVED WITH A FRENCH RATIO, exactly as the row above: France's 3 803 €/household/year of total transport spending scaled by 0.850. Same caveat, same source, same fix.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, sheet RES_summary, household consumption expenditure per household; French value INSEE Première 1855

Spanish car traffic divided by the Spanish car fleet: 274 900 million vehicle-kilometres over 24 558 126 cars in 2019. The same calculation on the French sheets gives 11 080 km against the French constant's 11 600, a ratio of 0.955, so the mapping is trustworthy. A Spanish car does 3.5% fewer kilometres a year than a French one and carries 1.24 people rather than 1.87, so the passenger-kilometres per car are a third lower.

• JRC-IDEES-2021, Spain, Transport workbook, sheet TrRoad_act, blocks 'Vehicle-km driven (mio km)' and 'Stock of vehicles - total (vehicles)', row 'Passenger cars' — 274 900.4 mio vkm / 24 558 126 cars = 11 194 km (2019). France: 425 900 / 38 435 918 = 11 080 km.

The car fleet the Spanish reference scenario computes: 22.84 million cars, against 24.56 million actually on the road in 2019, because the reference scenario already applies the model's own modal shifts. It is the denominator of the fleet ratio the household-cost panel uses, so at the reference the ratio is exactly one and the household car budget is the declared one. It is a pinned model output, not a statistic: run python3 app/tools/pin_reference.py --country ES, read costs.transport.fleet out of reference.json, and put it here. A value that moves because a Spanish datum was corrected is a legitimate change and shows up in that file's diff.

• app/model/countries/ES/reference.json, costs.transport.fleet — the model's own output at the Spanish reference scenario — 22 839 935.29 cars. Cross-check: JRC-IDEES gives 24 558 126 Spanish cars in 2019.

New forest does not store carbon the year it is planted. Hectares planted less than ten years before the horizon are left out of the afforestation term altogether, which is a crude step where the truth is a curve; the alternative — a growth function nobody in the sources publishes — would be a curve we invented.

New forest is booked at the expansion rate rather than at the average per-hectare rate of the standing forest, because a young stand does not store like a mature one. The same source gives 5.0 for a renewal plan on existing forest and 0.2 to 2.4 for the rest of the forest depending on management and climate; 3.0 is the expansion line.

• IGN–FCBA (2024), Projections des disponibilités en bois et des stocks et flux de carbone du secteur forestier, table 15

1.0 tC/ha/y lost for twenty years when permanent grassland is ploughed, converted here at 44/12. The interval on it is ±40%, and the stock difference between the two uses (84.6 against 51.6 tC/ha over 0–30 cm) would imply 1.65 tC/ha/y if all of it were lost before a new equilibrium — it is not, and the modal value is what the inventory uses. These coefficients are measured on one country's soils and a port should check them against its own; they are shared because soil chemistry does not stop at a border, not because they are beyond argument.

• Citepa for the Haut Conseil pour le Climat (2021), Incertitudes liées à la comptabilisation des puits de carbone dans les sols, fig. 12 — after Arrouays et al. (2002)

0.5 tC/ha/y regained for twenty years when arable land goes back to grass, converted at 44/12. Half the loss rate, and deliberately so: the same source's finding is that "loss is twice as fast as gain", which is what makes re-grassing a slower repair than ploughing was a break.

• Citepa for the Haut Conseil pour le Climat (2021), Incertitudes liées à la comptabilisation des puits de carbone dans les sols, fig. 12 — after Arrouays et al. (2002)

How long a hectare goes on emitting, or storing, after it changes use. Twenty years is the tail the inventory applies, so at a horizon 26 years away only the last twenty years of conversions are still in the flux.

• Citepa for the Haut Conseil pour le Climat (2021), Incertitudes liées à la comptabilisation des puits de carbone dans les sols, tables 7 and 9

This edition does not carry the land module. The natural sink is the naturalSink slider, exactly as it was before the module existed, the seven land levers are hidden and inert, and the Land & food tab is not drawn. Everything the module needs is declared below as a placeholder; switching this constant to 1 without replacing all of it would put French land in Spain.

2024 to 2050 — the horizon of this edition, counted from the year after the land survey the account would be written on. Derived rather than a placeholder: it follows this edition's own horizon and nothing else.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: gross biological production per hectare. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: mortality per hectare. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: forest area available for wood production. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: standing live volume. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: base-year removals of live trees. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: what a cubic metre leaving the living stock takes with it. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the inventory's sink over its balance at the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the dead-wood pool per cubic metre of mortality. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the half-life of carbon in dead wood. Inert, because land_module_active is 0, which also holds the dead wood at its base year.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: litter and forest soil on land-use change. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: forest outside the land account's territory. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: sawlogs in the base-year harvest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: industrial wood in the base-year harvest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: energy wood sold, in the base-year harvest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: firewood cut and never sold. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: wood felled and left in the forest, in million cubic metres a year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: standing-stock volume per cubic metre of the harvest statistic. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the wood-products pool per cubic metre a year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the base-year long-lived share of the harvest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Measured on one building and cross-checked against element coefficients, because no whole-building intensity by structural system is published anywhere. The anchor is an eight-storey, 142-dwelling mass-timber residential building whose bill of materials was compared with a functionally equivalent concrete one: 519 to 553 kg/m² of concrete avoided over 13 766 m² of gross floor area, which at 280–320 kg of cement a cubic metre and a density of 2 380 kg/m³ is 61 to 74 kg of cement, and 67 is the middle. A timber building is not a building without concrete, and that is the point of a saving rather than a substitution. The same measured building still carried 288 kg/m² of concrete in its foundations, its ground floor and its toppings, and used more lean concrete than its concrete twin. Against the 137 kg/m² this model books for new French housing, 67 is close to half — which is the right order: négaWatt reaches −46% of concrete at 80 to 95% timber, and half of 90% is 45. The competing way to model this is a displacement factor in tonnes of carbon avoided per tonne of carbon in the wood, and it is deliberately not used here. That literature has moved from 2.1 (Sathre and O'Connor 2010, 21 studies) to 1.2 (Leskinen 2018, 51 studies) to 0.55 at market level (Hurmekoski 2021, 44 studies, range 0.27–1.16), with a French critique arguing the benefit has been overstated several fold. A kilogramme of cement not made is a physical quantity this model already prices and emits; a displacement factor is an argument about counterfactuals. The model takes the physical route and leaves the argument to the annex.

• FPInnovations / Gouvernement du Québec, comparative LCA of an 8-storey mass-timber residential building (Arbora, Montréal) — bill of materials
• Hurmekoski et al. 2021, «Substitution impacts of wood use at the market level», Environmental Research Letters — market-level displacement factor 0.55 (0.27–1.16)
• FCBA/BIPE 2019 for CODIFAB, FBF and ADEME — element-level equivalences: 1 kg of wood replaces 5.24 kg of concrete and 0.18 kg of rebar in a load-bearing CLT façade

From the same measured building, and deliberately the net figure: the timber structure removes about 21 kg/m² of reinforcement, and adds back steel balconies, galvanised studs and brick support, so the whole-building balance is roughly −17 kg/m². Against the 21 kg/m² this model books for new French housing that is most of it — which is exactly why the national effect is small: new buildings are about a tenth of French steel, so even a wholesale switch to timber moves the steel bar by a few percent. ADEME's own biosourced scenario finds −2% then −5% on steel against −2% then −8% on cement, and this model reproduces that asymmetry rather than asserting it.

• FPInnovations / Gouvernement du Québec, comparative LCA of an 8-storey mass-timber residential building — whole-building steel balance
• ADEME 2019, «Prospective de consommation de matériaux pour la construction des bâtiments», scénario «développement des biosourcés»

Two independent anchors agree, which is the only reason this number is here at all. The measured mass-timber building carries 2 597 m³ of cross-laminated timber, glulam beams and glulam columns over 13 766 m² — 0.189 m³/m². The French biosourced-building label's top level asks for 45 kgC/m² for housing, which at the carbon content and density of softwood is 0.200 m³/m². Light timber frame sits well below both, so 0.189 is a mass-timber figure and overstates what an ossature-bois house uses; the model says so rather than splitting a coefficient it cannot source.

• FPInnovations / Gouvernement du Québec, Arbora mass-timber building — 2 047 m³ CLT + 378.2 m³ beams + 171.6 m³ columns over 13 766 m²
• Arrêté du 2 juillet 2024, label «bâtiment biosourcé» — 45 kgC/m² for level 3 in housing

A sawmill turns roughly half of a sawlog into sawn timber; the rest is slabwood, sawdust and bark, and most of it is sold as chips, pellets or panel furnish rather than lost. The factor is what lets construction timber demand be compared with the long-lived harvest the forest account already computes, and 2.0 is the round number the trade uses. It is provisional because a national yield is not published on the same perimeter as this model's harvest.

• Agreste, «Récolte de bois et production de sciages en 2024» — 18.3 Mm³ of sawlogs against 8.16 Mm³ of sawnwood produced

Zero, matching the hidden timberShare lever, so the timber term is identically zero everywhere in this edition.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the base-year wood-products balance. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: carbon carried into the wood-products pool per cubic metre of long-lived harvest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the half-life of the long-lived wood-products pool. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the wood-products stock the national inventory report implies. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: absorption per hectare of permanent grassland. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: emission per hectare of arable land. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: emission per unit of annual artificialisation. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: wetlands, other land and dams. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: what a rewetted hectare of organic soil still emits, in tCO₂e a year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of the drained organic soil already rewetted in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the N₂O of a drained hectare of agricultural organic soil, in tCO₂e a year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the soil-carbon potential on arable land. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the soil-carbon potential on grassland. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the share of artificialised land taken from arable land. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of artificialised land taken from permanent grassland. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of artificialised land taken from forest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the observed artificialisation rate. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: deliberate afforestation in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: net grassland conversion in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the share of the soil-carbon potential already taken. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the inventory's observed forest line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the inventory's observed wood-products line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the inventory's observed grassland line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the inventory's observed cropland line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the inventory's observed artificial-areas line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not Spanish data: the inventory's observed wetlands line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

One, by definition: dietDairy is an index on the base year, so the base year sits at 100%. It is declared rather than written into the formula so that the switched-off branch of the module names what it reads.

Zero: the base year has cut none of its own waste, because the waste share is measured on it.

One: the export volumes the table declares are the base year, so the index that scales them is one there.

One, like livestock_export_base: the export hectares the crop block declares are the base year's, and the index that scales them is one there.

One: mineral_n_base is the base-year delivery, and nIntensity is a percentage of it.

Zero, and this is a statement about the calibration rather than about farming practice: the per-head emission factors are fitted to the observed inventory year, so whatever low-methane feeding that year already contained is inside the factors. The lever measures the change from there, and the change at the base year is nothing.

Zero, for the same reason as enteric_mitigation_base: the digesters the base year already runs are inside the observed emission factors, and the lever books the change from there. It is not a claim that no manure is methanised today.

Zero: the base year burns all of the fossil fuel the inventory measures on its farms.

The observed emission factor of fossil liquid fuel, the value efLiquid slides away from and the one the base-year farm burned. It is used in one place only — to say how much energy the base year's farm fuel represents — and no emission is charged at it.

The natural logarithm of two, which turns a half-life into a first-order decay rate: k = ln 2 / half-life. Declared once rather than written into a formula, like the nitrogen fraction of ammonia, because a number that appears in an equation should be a number a reader can find.

• IPCC (2006), Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Vol. 4, Ch. 12, Equation 12.1 — k = ln(2)/HL

14 ÷ 17: the nitrogen in a tonne of ammonia, from the atomic masses. It is the one number in this module that is chemistry rather than statistics, and it is what turns a nitrogen demand into an ammonia tonnage for the industry chain.

• IUPAC atomic weights: N 14.007, H 1.008 — 14.007 / 17.031 = 0.8225

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: population in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: population at the horizon. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: observed red meat eaten per person. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: observed poultry eaten per person. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the edible share of the food supply that is thrown away. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of beef that is a by-product of the dairy herd. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the enteric methane a low-methane ration removes. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the manure methane a digester avoids. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: refrigerant leakage on farms. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: mineral nitrogen delivered in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: nitrogen in the manure collected and spread. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: nitrogen deposited at pasture. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: nitrogen fixed biologically by legumes. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the fixation added over the legume credit's span. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: legume area in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the mineral nitrogen a larger legume area replaces. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the increase in legume area that credit was booked over. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the organic share of the arable area in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the organic yield as a fraction of the conventional one. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the dose, as a fraction of the base year's, down to which a conventional hectare keeps its yield. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the nitrogen use efficiency of cropland, which sets how fast the yield falls below the plateau. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the edible share of the plant-food supply wasted downstream of the farm. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of the non-energy arable area growing plant food. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share growing feed. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share growing export crops. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: fallow, seed and the rest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the forage part of the feed area. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the arable area growing a main crop for a digester in the base year, in million hectares. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: dry matter a hectare of that main crop yields, in tonnes. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the digester and digestate emissions per hectare of that main crop, in tCO₂e a year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: poultry's share of compound feed. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: cattle's share of compound feed. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: pigs' share of compound feed. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the N₂O per tonne of mineral nitrogen. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the urea and liming CO₂ per tonne of mineral nitrogen. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: agricultural CO₂ the nitrogen dose does not drive — liming and the other carbon-containing fertilisers. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the N₂O per tonne of nitrogen in spread manure. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the N₂O per tonne of nitrogen deposited at pasture. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the remaining crop N₂O per tonne of nitrogen input. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: field burning of crop residues. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the combustion emissions of farm and forestry engines. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the rough grazing the farm survey and the land survey disagree about. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the ammonia the chemical industry makes for something else. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the base-year share of nitrogen made inside the country. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the inventory's observed livestock line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the inventory's observed crops-and-soils line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Methane yield of the wet feedstocks a digester takes — manure, crop residues and grass alike, which is how the source publishes it, as one number rather than three. Cover crops get their own, higher figure (cive_biogas_yield), because a whole green plant digests better than straw or a slurry does. It is shared rather than national because it is a property of the substrate, not of the country: the same tonne of dry manure yields the same methane in Germany. What is national is how many tonnes there are, which is manure_dm_per_cattle_head and its neighbours.

• IGEDD/CGE/CGAAER, Évaluation du potentiel de production d'énergies renouvelables à partir de la biomasse, déc. 2023, annexe 10 p. 134 — 2,0 MWh PCI/t MS pour effluents, résidus et herbe

A winter intermediate crop harvested whole gives 250–320 Nm³ of methane a tonne of dry matter, and a normal cubic metre of methane is 9.97 kWh PCI, so the range is 2.5–3.2 MWh/t DM. 2.8 is its middle, and it is the figure that makes the mission's own arithmetic work: 6 t DM/ha × 2.8 is 17 TWh per million hectares, which is what the report quotes.

• IGEDD 2023, p. 22–23 et annexe 10 — 250–320 Nm³ CH₄/t MS, 17 TWh/Mha de CIVE
• AILE, Les substrats en méthanisation — pouvoirs méthanogènes par substrat

A tonne of dry residue turned into a second-generation liquid fuel by the thermochemical route yields the same 2.0 MWh as the same tonne turned into biogas, which is exactly why the two compete: choosing one forecloses the other at no gain in energy. Declared separately from the biogas figure so that a source which does separate them can move one without the other. The equality is not a coincidence of rounding — Fischer-Tropsch converts at up to 50% and a digester's methane at a similar order — but it is a coarse number, and the route's real efficiency depends on the plant.

• IGEDD 2023, annexe 10 — 2,0 MWh/t MS en voie thermochimique ; Fischer-Tropsch ≤ 50 %, FAME ≤ 70 %

Two administrations publish two numbers and the game has to pick one. The energy directorate's biomass balance uses 2.14 MWh per cubic metre of roundwood; the environment inspectorate's annex uses 2.4. 2.14 is taken because it is the figure the balance that also supplies non_forest_wood and waste_wood is written on, and mixing two conventions inside one total would be worse than choosing the lower of them. The difference is 12%, or about fourteen terawatt-hours on the base year — larger than any single lever in this block moves. It is shared rather than national because it is a conversion, not a measurement of a country: what varies across borders is the species mix behind it, and a country that knows its own should say so in the why of the entries that use it.

• SGPE, Bouclage biomasse : enjeux et orientations, juillet 2024, p. 19 — 2,14 MWh/m³
• IGEDD 2023, annexe 7 — 2,4 MWh PCI/m³, la valeur non retenue

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: collectable manure dry matter per head of cattle, in tonnes a year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the same per pig. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of collectable manure that reached a digester in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: dry matter a hectare of winter cover crop yields, in tonnes. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the cover-crop area in the base year, in million hectares. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the spring-crop area that could carry a cover crop at all. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: crop residues an arable hectare produces, in tonnes of dry matter. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of them already carried off the field in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: how the mobilised residues split between a digester and a 2G liquid plant. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the biogas feedstock the module does not build — biowaste, sludge, landfill gas. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of the material harvest that comes back as sawmill and pulp-mill fuel. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: wood energy from hedges, orchards and trees outside woodland, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: end-of-life wood burned for energy, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: fuel a hectare of first-generation energy crop yields, in MWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the first-generation energy-crop area in the base year, in million hectares. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: used cooking oil and animal fats made into liquid fuel, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: liquid biofuel and feedstock imported in the base year, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: observed primary consumption of wood energy in the base year, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: observed primary consumption of biogas in the base year, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: observed primary consumption of liquid biofuel in the base year, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.