The Net Zero Game

Share of 2020 private-car demand still served by a liquid-fuelled car in 2050. The four car shares are rebalanced to 100% as the player moves them.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not British data: 10% is the French teaching workbook's horizon share for gas-fuelled cars. There is effectively no British CNG car fleet, so the honest British figure is close to zero, and this package's own passenger table already puts every car-kilometre on the fossil row for want of a published fuel split. It cannot be moved from here alone: the four car shares must sum to 100% at their defaults and only this one is national. What would close it: the National Travel Survey's mileage weighting and a DfT fleet projection, with all four shares made national together.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml, carGas — carried unchanged — Not a British source. See NOTES.md.

Car demand transferred to short-distance rail, at the occupancy and unit consumption of the rail row rather than the car row.

In 2050 the model leaves no fossil liquid fuel at all: every litre is either biofuel or e-fuel made from electricity. This is a scenario assumption, and it is why liquid fuel carries a low emission factor.

The headline decarbonisation choice for buildings, and the one that drives the winter peak. It is a share of heat need, not of energy: how that heat is produced is the next question down.

A target in the unit the resource constraint is written in. 6 TWh is where the CCC's Balanced Pathway puts bioenergy in British homes in 2050 — 6.165 TWh of final demand — and it is a seventh of the French default. The reason is not that Britain has less forest: it is that the pathway sends its biomass to power stations with carbon capture (38.2 TWh) and to making hydrogen and synthetic fuel (41.7 TWh) instead of to boilers. A British player who drags this lever up is taking wood away from the removals that make the national account balance, which is the competition the lever exists to show. The maximum is 40 rather than France's 120 because 40 TWh is already a third of the CCC's entire 2050 bioenergy envelope for the whole economy.

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget (February 2025), full dataset, sheet 'Sector-level data', Residential buildings, 'Energy: final demand bioenergy', Balanced Pathway, 2050 — 6.165 TWh. Economy-wide 2050 bioenergy gross demand 118.880 TWh, of which fuel supply 41.669, electricity supply 38.220, waste 16.552, industry 14.018, residential buildings 6.165, shipping 1.950.

Seasonal COP 2.5, falling to 2.0 at peak.

Seasonal COP 3.0, falling to 2.0 at peak.

A slider rather than a stock that can only shrink, because a scenario may genuinely install more electric convectors — they are cheap to fit and terrible for the peak. Efficiency 1 in both seasons, so this is the one electric option that buys no COP at all.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the French 13 TWh is scaled to the size of the British heat-network sector and nothing more. UK heat networks deliver roughly 2.5% of building heat against France's 6%, and FES gives 899 734 GB dwellings on communal or low-carbon district heating consuming 6.117 TWh in 2024 — so a 2050 network burning 13 TWh of wood is not a British quantity. 2 TWh is the French default cut in the ratio of the two sectors' 2050 sizes, which is arithmetic, not a source. What would close it: DESNZ Heat networks statistics, which publishes heat delivered by fuel, together with the Government's Heat Network Zoning programme's 2050 projections.

• NESO, FES 2025 Data Workbook, sheet ED7 — GB district-heating stock and delivered energy, 2024 (the scale, not the value) — 899 734 dwellings, 6.117 TWh delivered; commercial 11 344 buildings, 0.897 TWh.

Recovered industrial heat, energy from waste and geothermal in heat networks. Zero by default, as in France, and with a smaller maximum for the same reason as districtWoodTwh: the British network is a quarter of the size of the French one. The lever has no emission factor and adds nothing to the winter peak, so it is the cheapest thing a network can run on and the model will not stop you raising it past what the industry module says is available.

One slider conflates retrofit depth and retrofit rate, which have very different costs. Separating them is a documented next step.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

Hidden and inert: this edition carries no cement intensity per square metre, so no floor area can reach its cement. Zero rather than the observed rate, because a number that moves nothing would invite a reader to quote it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

Hidden and inert, for the same reason as newHousing.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

Hidden and inert: with no floor area reaching cement, a timber share has nothing to displace.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

Hidden and inert: this edition's cement is all in the residual row, which no lever drives, so there is no civil-works tonnage for this index to multiply.

Zero. The United Kingdom has not made ammonia since July 2023, when CF Fertilisers permanently closed the Billingham unit — the last one in the country — and switched to importing ammonia to make ammonium nitrate on the same site. This is not a rounding-down: the chain is gone. It is also the most interesting thing this file has to teach. In the French game ammonia is a slider a player moves to argue about industrial hydrogen. Here the honest default is zero and the argument becomes a different one: whether a decarbonising country should re-shore an energy-intensive chain it has already lost, and what the imported ammonia costs somebody else. The range is kept at 0-1400 so that question can still be asked.

• CF Industries, CF Fertilisers UK announces proposal to permanently close ammonia plant at Billingham complex (July 2023) — Billingham was the UK's largest and last ammonia plant. Ammonium nitrate capacity at the site (625 kt/y) continues on imported ammonia.

Only the biogenic fraction of the CO₂ fed to the synthetic-olefin route counts as a removal, which is why this lever alone can turn the olefin process term negative.

How much less plastic the country asks for, against the base year — a demand reduction and not a recycling rate. It scales the olefin tonnage the crackers make and, since 0.28.0, the plastic the country's incinerators burn — which is where most of its effect now lies, and why it finally lowers emissions rather than raising them. It is the one lever in this chain that answers "how much of this do we need" rather than "how do we make it". The two French reference scenarios cannot anchor it. ADEME's Transition(s) 2050 publishes material-demand trajectories for steel, aluminium, cement and glass and none for plastics; its plastics content is an 80% recycling rate, and négaWatt does the same. Both express plastics as a rate of recycling, which since 0.33.0 is read on plasticRecycling, not here. What can is SYSTEMIQ's ReShaping Plastics, the one published pathway that separates the wedges. European plastic demand grows in its baseline, 37 to 48 Mt by 2050; its Circularity scenario takes 25% off that baseline by reducing demand and 4% more by substituting materials. Against 2050 that is 29%; against today it is under 10%, because a quarter of a growing baseline is a tenth of the present. This slider is written against the base year, so the two readings are the two ends of what one study supports — and the reference, 30%, sits at the far edge of the more generous one. The sectors move in opposite directions underneath: packaging can lose 38% (an eighth eliminated, a further three tenths reused), vehicles 22%, while construction plastic grows by half in every scenario published. A single national share hides that, and a player moving this slider is assuming the packaging wedge does all the work.

• SYSTEMIQ (2022), ReShaping Plastics: Pathways to a Circular, Climate Neutral Plastics System in Europe, for Plastics Europe — EU27+UK, baseline 37→48 Mt by 2050; Circularity scenario 25% reduce + 4% substitute
• ADEME, Transition(s) 2050 — material-demand trajectories for steel, aluminium, cement and glass; plastics carried as a recycling rate
• See docs/waste/olefins_and_plastic_demand.md for the legal instruments (PPWR, SUP, loi AGEC, décret 3R) and why they do not bound this slider

The share of the plastic that reaches the incinerators in the base year which is sorted out and recycled instead. It is how the French reference scenarios express plastics: ADEME's Transition(s) 2050 and négaWatt both carry an 80% recycling rate, against 20% for all French plastic waste in 2022. If what is not recycled is burned, going from 20% to 80% leaves a quarter of today's burned plastic, which is 75 on this slider; the default, 0, is today's rate. Applied after plasticReduction: plastic not consumed is not there to recycle. Each tonne recycled costs 0.5 MWh of electricity, the middle of the 0.3–0.7 the JRC gives for mechanical recycling, booked on the waste-to-energy post because the model has no post for sorting and recycling. Three things it does not do. The recycled polymer does not displace any virgin olefin: the territorial inventory credits nothing unless French crackers actually make less, and the JRC discounts most recycled polymers to 0.6 of a virgin tonne. Sorting losses are not modelled — a recycling line rejects part of what it receives, and that refuse is burned or landfilled. And the plastic still in the residual bin is the hardest to recover: films, soiled and multilayer packaging, and the plastic in textiles and nappies.

• SDES (September 2025), Bilan 2022 de la production de déchets en France, p. 4 — plastics recycling rate 20%
• ADEME, Transition(s) 2050 — plastics carried as an 80% recycling rate
• JRC (2023), Environmental and economic assessment of plastic waste recycling, EUR 31423, p. 54 — mechanical recycling 0.3–0.7 MWh of electricity a tonne; pp. 29–30, substitution factors (PP 0.6, HIPS 0.65, food-grade PET 1)
• See docs/waste/plastics_and_incineration.md, §2.2

The share of an incinerator's stack CO₂ that is captured and stored. A capture plant does not sort the molecules, so it takes the fossil and the biogenic CO₂ together — and about 60% of what leaves a French incinerator is biogenic. Capturing on an incinerator is therefore mostly bioenergy with carbon capture, which is the point worth teaching. Only the fossil part lowers the national total here. The biogenic part is shown and not counted: a captured biogenic tonne is a removal, and removals are what techSink already stands for — counting them here as well would book the same tonne twice. The hydrogen route does count its biogenic capture as negative, and the controversy table says why that is contested. 90% is the top because it is what the plants being built claim: 85% in the techno-economic literature, 87% at Oslo's Klemetsrud, 90% announced at Le Mans. Since 0.32.0 the capture is powered and paid for: 0.315 MWh of electricity a tonne captured, fossil or biogenic, which the mix has to produce, and 100 € a tonne for the plant plus 50 for transport and storage, in the cost tab. The biogenic tonnes are paid for and not counted, which is why a fossil tonne avoided here costs two and a half times a tonne captured.

• Bertone et al. (2024), Techno-Economic Assessment of Amine-Based Carbon Capture in Waste-to-Energy Incineration Plant Retrofit, Sustainability 16(19) 8468 — 85% capture, 90–156 €/tCO₂
• Hafslund Celsio, Klemetsrud (Oslo) — about 400 ktCO₂/y emitted, 350 kt/y captured, about 60% biogenic; FID January 2025, operation Q3 2029
• See docs/waste/plastics_and_incineration.md, §4

Renamed in v0.20, because it finally has a driver. Until then it was "cement-demand reduction" with no why, no help and nothing behind it: a scenario could take 60% off the country's cement without saying which building it had not built, and the annex could not say what the slider meant. How much is built is now the construction module's business. What is left here is the intensity of the works: leaner mixes, thinner slabs and post-tensioned structures, a design that uses the concrete it pours. It is not clinkerRate, which replaces clinker inside the cement with slag or fly ash; this one asks for less cement in the first place. The two multiply, and a scenario that pushes both is asking for a lot from the same building twice over. The range is a rule. The published levers for the sector are the clinker ratio and capture, and nobody has assessed how far structural design alone can go — so 60% is a bound on an argument rather than on an assessment.

THE UNITED KINGDOM STARTS OUTSIDE THE FRENCH SLIDER. The observed UK clinker-to-cement ratio in 2024 is 0.877 — 6.4 Mt of clinker in 7.3 Mt of cement — against a French slider that stops at 0.78. The maximum is raised to 90 so the country's own present can be represented; the minimum stays at 35 so the simpleCleanProcesses coarse control, which drives this lever to 35, needs no re-pointing. The default of 70 is a teaching choice and not a published target. The CCC's cement pathway leans on carbon capture rather than on clinker substitution, and the two British substitutes — fly ash from coal power and blast-furnace slag — are both disappearing with the plants that made them. A British player asking for 35% clinker is asking for a supply of supplementary cementitious materials the country no longer produces, and the model will not tell them so.

• Mineral Products Association, UK cement and clinker production 2024, as reported by The Chemical Engineer — Cement 7.3 Mt and clinker 6.4 Mt in 2024, a ratio of 0.877; imports 32% of sales.

The share of a cement kiln's fossil stack that is captured: the decarbonation of the limestone and, since 0.29.0, the fossil part of the kiln fuel, because a capture plant on a cement stack does not sort the molecules. The biogenic CO₂ of the waste the kiln burns goes up the same stack and would be captured too; it is not credited, for the reason wteCapture gives. Until 0.27.0 the term this lever multiplied carried the kiln fuel under the name of calcination, and the same fuel was also charged through the energy account — emitted twice, captured once. In 0.27.0 it captured the calcination alone and was a floor; now it is the whole fossil stack. Since 0.32.0 it is powered and paid for: 0.54 MWh of electricity a tonne of clinker at 95%, which the mix has to produce, the capture plant's capital in the cost of clinker, and 50 € a tonne for transport and storage on everything it stores, biogenic included.

The share of a kiln's heat that comes from waste rather than from petroleum coke and coal. French kilns were at 38% in 2015, 44% in 2021 and 52% in 2023, burning over a million tonnes of waste a year; the sector's roadmap takes it to 80% in 2030 and 85% in 2050, the default. About half of that waste is biomass, so the lever cuts the kiln's fossil CO₂ roughly half as fast as it moves: at 0% the whole heat is fossil, at 85% still 56% of it is. It does not take waste from the incinerators, and since 0.33.0 that is a finding rather than a gap. The refuse-derived fuel French kilns burn is made from the refuse of sorting lines — commercial waste, separate collection, bulky waste — and French policy keeps residual household waste out of it. Its alternative is landfill, not the incinerators, which are full and turned away half a million tonnes in 2022. The two would compete for the same tonne only once landfill is close to zero.

• Feuille de route de décarbonation de la filière Ciment (May 2023), Tableau 3-2 p. 12 — 38% (2015), 44% (2021), 80% (2030), 85% (2050)
• France Ciment / SFIC, Le ciment en chiffres 2024, pp. 8 and 10 — 52% of the kiln's energy from waste in 2023, over 1 086 000 t
• ADEME / In Extenso, ELCIMAÏ, RDC (January 2026), DAE et CSR — état des lieux et vision prospective, synthèse, pp. 27, 30, 39 — CSR made from sorting refuse, residual household waste excluded; its alternative outlet is landfill
• ADEME / Rudologia, Le traitement des DMA en 2022 (ITOM 2022), p. 21 — 496 kt turned away by incinerators, 63% of it to landfill

How much the branches the game does not model produce, between today's output and the source workbook's 2050 scenario. That scenario is a reindustrialisation: measured branch by branch it multiplies textile output by 8.5, electronics by 3.1, mineral extraction by 2.5, while mineral chemistry falls to 0.52 and naval and aerospace to 0.56. Growth of that size is not decarbonisation, and separating it from the process lever is the whole point — otherwise a player could appear to clean up industry while assuming an eightfold textile sector.

• Offre_et_demande.xlsx, branch sheets E18–E38 — production 2019 and 2050 by product and process
• INSEE, enquête EACEI 2019, for the observed energy consumption by branch

Less of everything the rest of industry makes, branch by branch in the same proportion — metals, minerals, chemistry, paper and the rest — with its fuel, its electricity and its process emissions going down together. Added in 0.30 after students found that the rest of industry could only grow: otherIndustryVolume runs from today's output towards a reindustrialisation, and nothing ran the other way, although these branches carry two thirds of the methane a scenario cannot otherwise get rid of. The top of the range is the one French pathway that contracts industry: ADEME's Génération frugale cuts industrial production by 38% by 2050, because people buy fewer, longer-lived goods. Provisional, because that figure is read from summaries of the study rather than from its industry chapter. And one thing this lever cannot tell apart: a scenario in which France buys less, and one in which France makes less and imports the rest. The territorial account cannot tell them apart either; the first is sufficiency, the second is leakage.

• ADEME (2021), Transition(s) 2050, scenario S1 Génération frugale — industrial production −38% by 2050, as reported in summaries of the study

How much energy each unit of output takes, between today's processes and the 2050 ones. This is where electrification lives: at constant output it takes the electricity of these branches from 68 to 138 TWh while cutting coal and fuel oil to zero. The default is 100% and the volume default is 0%, so the reference scenario reads "the rest of industry modernises at today's output" — the neutral reading, with growth added explicitly.

• Offre_et_demande.xlsx, branch sheets E18–E38 — unit consumption in MWh per tonne, 2019 and 2050

Heat rejected by industrial processes and recovered instead of vented. ADEME puts the recoverable gisement at 15.6 TWh on the 2019 industry, of which 7.7 TWh above 100 °C, and — this is what makes it a real constraint — expresses it against the fuel each sector burns. So the gisement is not a fixed reserve: it shrinks as processes electrify, because there is no combustion left to reject heat from. Recovering waste heat and electrifying heat compete for the same physics, and the model makes them compete.

• ADEME, La chaleur fatale (2017 study, 2021 update)

Cross-cutting energy efficiency — motors, drives, compressed air, insulation, heat integration. RTE, after CEREN, identifies a potential of 21.1% on industrial electricity and 19.8% on fuels, of which about 58% pays back in under three years. The ceiling is branch-specific and applied as such: 11.4% for steel, 15.5% for metals and machinery, 19.3% for paper, 24.1% for minerals, 25.0% for the food industry, 31.1% for chemistry. This lever says how much of that identified potential is actually captured, not how much exists — so it cannot invent efficiency beyond what the study found, which is the point of a ceiling.

• RTE, Bilan prévisionnel — groupe de travail Consommation, after CEREN

THE SINGLE BIGGEST SCENARIO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS FILE AND THE FRENCH ONE. France assumes every molecule of 2050 methane is biomethane and carries 25 gCO₂/kWh. No published UK pathway describes that. The arithmetic, shown so it can be argued with: the CCC's Balanced Pathway has 168.06 TWh of gross methane demand in the UK in 2050, and NESO's most biomethane-rich net-zero pathway supplies 21.04 TWh of biogas. That is a 12.5% biogenic share, so 0.125 × 25 + 0.875 × 227 = 202 gCO₂/kWh, rounded to the slider's step of 5. Dragging this lever down to 25 is the British version of the French question, and it is a much bigger move here: it asks for six times the biomethane any UK study has costed.

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget full dataset, 'Economy-wide data', 'Energy: gross demand gas', Balanced Pathway, 2050 — 168.061 TWh in 2050; of the final demand, 13.694 TWh abated and 21.017 unabated.
• NESO, FES 2025 Data Workbook, sheet F.70 'Biomass supply source breakdown by pathway in 2050', row Biogas — 21.04 TWh in Holistic Transition and Hydrogen Evolution, 5.04 in Electric Engagement. NOTE: FES sheet F.22 gives 5.85 bcm of biomethane supply, which is 64.4 TWh at the workbook's own conversion, and the two sheets do not reconcile. The lower figure is used, which makes this default conservative on emissions.

Same construction as efGas, and the same disagreement with the French assumption of a fully decarbonised 2050 liquid fuel. The CCC's 2050 liquid demand is 117.70 TWh of fossil oil, 53.45 of sustainable aviation fuel, 18.00 of synthetic methanol and 0.60 of methanol — a 38% non-fossil share. 0.38 × 25 + 0.62 × 264 = 173 gCO₂/kWh, rounded to 175. Read it against the aviation figures: the largest single residual in the whole British pathway is aviation, and this lever is most of the reason.

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget full dataset, 'Economy-wide data', gross demand oil / SAF / synmethanol / methanol, Balanced Pathway, 2050 — oil 117.703, SAF 53.450, synmethanol 17.998, methanol 0.598 TWh.
• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget, Table 7.6.1, p.224 — Sustainable aviation fuel is 38% of aviation liquid-fuel demand in 2050.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: 27 gCO₂/kWh is the French workbook's own observation of the fossil energy in the FRENCH wood chain, and the British chain is not the French one. A large share of UK wood energy is imported North-American pellets, shipped; the CCC recommends halting imported biomass for BECCS by 2050; and NESO's most electrified pathway is also its most import-dependent, at 31.4% of bioenergy supply imported against 4.1% in its hydrogen pathway. Carrying 27 understates exactly the thing that is contested in the United Kingdom. What would close it: the DESNZ/DEFRA greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting, which publish a well-to-tank factor for wood pellets, split between domestic and imported chains.

• NESO, FES 2025 Data Workbook, sheet F.70 — imported share of GB bioenergy supply in 2050 (the reason the French value does not travel, not a replacement for it) — Imports are 16.0% of bioenergy supply in Holistic Transition, 31.4% in Electric Engagement, 4.1% in Hydrogen Evolution, 4.9% in Falling Behind.

Kerosene per passenger-kilometre, improving each year through aircraft renewal, seat density and load factor. Published trajectories converge tightly on 1%/year: ICAO 1.0, ADEME 1.0, T&E 0.9, the UK Committee on Climate Change 0.9, the World Economic Forum's Clean Skies for Tomorrow 1.0, against 2.5 in the more optimistic ICSA figure. The default is 0 because the source workbook uses today's consumption for 2050 — moving the slider to 1 shows what a quarter-century of fleet renewal is worth, and it is worth less than most people expect.

• ICAO, Environmental trends in aviation to 2050 (2019)
• ADEME, Élaboration de scénarios de transition écologique du secteur aérien
• Transport & Environment, Roadmap to decarbonising European aviation (2018)

Passenger-kilometres, compounded over thirty years. The source workbook carries 2020 demand straight through to 2050, which is a growth assumption of zero and a very strong one — no published trajectory says that. For flights departing France the DGAC roadmap gives 1.62%/year falling to 1.19, or 1.8 without a price effect and 0.8 with one; ADEME spans −1.3 to +3.0 depending on scenario and price effect; Eurocontrol gives 3.3 then 1.7. World figures are higher still: ICAO 1.1 to 3.4, Airbus 2.6, Boeing 5.6 falling to 2.5. At 1.5%/year over thirty years traffic grows by 56%, which is worth more than every efficiency gain in the sector combined.

• DGAC, feuille de route de décarbonation de l'aviation
• ADEME, Élaboration de scénarios de transition écologique du secteur aérien
• ICAO environmental trends to 2050; EASA; Eurocontrol; Airbus and Boeing market outlooks

Sustainable aviation fuel from biomass. The published estimates disagree by a factor of six, and which route is assumed matters as much as who estimated it: HEFA from waste oils 600–1 900 €/t, biomass-to-liquid 1 400–2 900, alcohol-to-jet 750–3 900. The default sits mid-range across the three. The width of that range is the honest answer, which is why this is a slider and the range is printed beside it.

• EASA, State of the EU SAF market; European Commission ReFuelEU impact assessment
• ISAE-Supaero, Cost estimation of the use of low-carbon fuels in prospective aviation
• ATAG Waypoint 2050; IEA Advanced Biofuels; Solakivi et al. (2022); O. Massol et al. (2025); DGAC decarbonisation roadmap

Synthetic kerosene from electrolytic hydrogen and captured CO₂. Estimates range from 1 820 €/t (European Commission) to 10 000 (DGAC), with the review's central band at 3 700–6 200. Direct air capture costs more than biogenic CO₂: EASA gives 7 300–8 700 €/t for atmospheric CO₂ against 6 600–7 975 for biogenic.

• EASA and European Commission ReFuelEU Aviation impact assessment
• ISAE-Supaero; ATAG Waypoint 2050; E-Cube; Brynolf et al. (2020); Solakivi et al. (2022); O. Massol et al. (2025)

Everything that is not fuel — aircraft, crew, airport charges, maintenance, overheads — is assumed unchanged in 2050 and is derived from today's ticket through this share. It is the weakest link in the ticket calculation: a 2050 airline may well have a different cost structure, and nothing here models that.

• EASA, European Aviation Environmental Report 2025
• European Commission, study supporting the ReFuelEU Aviation impact assessment (19–33%)

0% is the observed inventory year, 100% the CCC Balanced Pathway's 2050 level: 46.5 MtCO₂e falling to 26.4, a reduction of only 43%. The British reading is different from the French one and the interface says so. In 2050 UK agriculture is the largest emitting sector in the country by a factor of seven, and the CCC does not abate it — it balances it against a land-use sink of −29.9 MtCO₂e. The two lines have to be read together, and a player who drags this lever past 100 is asking for something no published UK pathway contains.

0% is 21.4 MtCO₂e observed in 2024, 100% the Balanced Pathway's 4.5 in 2050 — a 79% fall. What is left is legacy landfill methane, which keeps being emitted long after the last tonne is buried, so the bottom of this lever's range is not reachable by any waste policy.

THE MINIMUM IS NEGATIVE, AND IT HAS TO BE. UK land use is a net SOURCE of greenhouse gases: +10.3 MtCO₂e in 1990 and +0.3 in 2024, which on this lever's signed convention is −0.3. A slider whose minimum is France's +5 cannot express the country's present. The range runs to −10 so that a player can also ask what happens if peatland restoration stalls and the land goes back to emitting, which is a live British argument. The default of 30 is the Balanced Pathway's 2050 figure, −29.892147 MtCO₂e of net emissions, i.e. 29.9 absorbed. Britain's land-use line has to CROSS ZERO between now and then — it is still +1.24 in 2035 and −1.87 in 2040 — through afforestation, peatland restoration and taking land out of agriculture. Every French sentence about a weakening forest sink is simply false here, and the interface prose says the opposite.

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget full dataset, 'Alt. sector classifications', TES 'LULUCF', Balanced Pathway — +1.044 (2025), +1.320 (2030), +1.240 (2035), −1.867 (2040), −29.892 (2050) MtCO₂e.
• DESNZ, 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions Final Figures — statistical release, LULUCF section p.21 and Table 2 p.31 — LULUCF +10.3 MtCO₂e in 1990 and +0.3 in 2024 — a net source in both years.

Unlike France's, this is not a closure residual. The CCC models engineered removals explicitly — bioenergy with carbon capture, direct air capture, enhanced weathering and biochar, and wood in construction — and publishes 35.816752 MtCO₂e for 2050. That makes the British version of the game's most contested line strictly better sourced than the French one, and it changes the argument: not "where did this number come from" but "should this much land and biomass be used this way". For scale: it is larger than the residual emissions of five of the six game sectors put together, and it is what takes the UK total slightly net negative in 2050. NESO's three net-zero pathways all assume at least 25 MtCO₂e, which is the cross-check. The minimum is 0 rather than France's 5 so a player can ask what net zero looks like without any of it.

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget full dataset, 'Alt. sector classifications', TES 'Engineered removals', Balanced Pathway, 2050 — −35.816752 MtCO₂e in 2050; −2.553 (2030), −12.667 (2035), −21.318 (2040).
• NESO, Future Energy Scenarios 2025 — 'The choices in our pathways', slide 14 — 'At least 25 MtCO₂e of engineered carbon removals by 2050', common to the three net-zero pathways. Cross-check only.

Flagged above 20 MtCO₂e/y absorbed. Twenty megatonnes a year, for the United Kingdom alone, is around half of everything the planet currently captures and stores, across every facility in operation. The CCC's own Balanced Pathway asks for 36 and NESO's pathways for at least 25, so the default sits inside the mark rather than outside it: the British argument is not where the number came from — it is sourced — but whether this much land, biomass and storage should be used this way. Nothing in this model builds the plant, supplies the electricity the capture consumes, or pays for either.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not UK data: the rate at which land is built on, in thousand hectares a year. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not UK data: the rate at which new forest is planted, in thousand hectares a year. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not UK data: the net rate at which permanent grassland is ploughed into arable land. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not UK data: the share of the identified agricultural soil-carbon potential taken. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not UK data: the volume of wood removed a year, informal firewood included. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not UK data: the share of the harvest that becomes sawn timber and panels. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the share of the drained organic soil put back under water. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not UK data: which of three published climate cases the forest lives through. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: red meat eaten per person, in carcass-weight equivalent. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: poultry eaten per person, in carcass-weight equivalent. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: dairy eaten per person, as an index on the base year. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: how much of today's edible food waste is cut. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: animal produce exported, as an index on base-year volumes. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: arable crops exported, as an index on the base-year volume. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: mineral nitrogen delivered to the fields, as a share of the base year. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: legumes in the rotation, in million hectares. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the organic share of the arable area. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the share of cattle on a low-methane ration. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the share of manure sent to a digester rather than to a store. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the fossil fuel taken off the farm. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the share of mineral nitrogen made inside the country. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the area of winter cover crop grown for a digester, in million hectares. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the share of crop residues carried off the field for energy. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the arable area growing a first-generation biofuel crop, in million hectares. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the arable area growing a main crop for a digester, in million hectares. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

PLACEHOLDER — French bounds carried, not national data: the liquid biofuel the scenario allows itself to import, in TWh a year. Inert in this edition, and drawn nowhere, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

14%, against France's 68%. Nearly nine tenths of British hot water comes out of the same gas boiler that heats the house, and the electric tenth is mostly immersion heaters in flats. This is a share of the SERVICE, not of the energy, computed exactly as the French entry describes: electricity × dhw_efficiency_electric over (electricity × dhw_efficiency_electric + fuel × dhw_efficiency_fuel), over the residential and tertiary hot-water rows of building_usage together. ECUK 2024 gives 13.87%, rounded to the step of 1. Residential alone is 12.27% and tertiary alone 20.26%; as in France one share is applied to both, so the national total is exact and the split between the segments is not. The teaching consequence is the opposite of France's. There the lever is nearly spent at its default; here it starts at 14% and the 79 TWh of gas, oil and wood behind the other 86% is one of the largest single blocks of fossil energy a British player can move.

• DESNZ, Energy Consumption in the UK (ECUK) 2025 — End Uses data tables, Table U3 (domestic) and Table U5 (services excl. agriculture, sub-sector Total), 2024 — Residential water heating: electricity 3.8299 TWh, gas 55.5598, oil+solid 5.3431, bioenergy 3.5490. Tertiary hot water: electricity 1.5914, gas 9.0897, oil 3.9359, other 1.5145, heat 0.1961. Computed by extract/ecuk_building_usage.py.

60.75% of the cooking service is electric, computed the same way with cooking_efficiency_electric = 0.84 against cooking_efficiency_fuel = 0.40. Rounded to 61, which is by coincidence exactly the French default. The two countries arrive there from opposite directions: the French figure is high because French cooking is electric, the British one because British gas hobs are inefficient enough that a small share of the energy buys a large share of the service. Residential alone is 64.18% and tertiary alone 57.96%.

• DESNZ, ECUK 2025 End Uses data tables, Table U3 (domestic cooking) and Table U5 ('Catering'), 2024 — Residential: electricity 6.7240 TWh, gas 7.8808. Tertiary catering: electricity 7.4750, gas 6.6477, oil 4.7367.

11.14 TWh, and every kilowatt-hour of it is non-domestic: ECUK publishes no domestic cooling end use at all, because British homes have almost no air conditioning and what there is sits inside the appliances line. So this lever acts on one row rather than two. The growth question is sharper here than in France for the reason the French text does not have to mention: British dwellings are built to retain heat, they already overheat, and the English Housing Survey now publishes an overheating table. Domestic cooling is a demand that does not yet exist and could appear quickly, which is exactly what a model with a zero denominator cannot represent. Flagged, not fixed. The asymmetry France declares applies here too: cooling makes a summer peak and the only peak constraint in this model is a winter one.

• DESNZ, ECUK 2025 End Uses data tables, Table U5, 'Cooling and ventilation', services excluding agriculture, 2024 — Electricity 10.4469 TWh + natural gas 0.0285 + oil 0.6675 = 11.1430 TWh. Table U3 has no domestic cooling column.

Lighting, appliances, screens and servers. It is the lever that has historically delivered — French specific consumption has been roughly flat for a decade while the equipment count rose — and here it is set against the growth lever below, which is the whole point of having both.

The counterweight to appliance efficiency. Data centres and AI are the part of this that is growing fastest and the part the model is least able to source, so it is left as an explicit assumption rather than given a trajectory it cannot defend.

RTE keeps a few GW of combustion capacity in every 2050 scenario, for the windless fortnight that no amount of storage covers. What it burns is a choice: methane, which draws on the same biomethane everything else wants, or hydrogen, which draws on electricity instead and emits nothing at the stack. Hydrogen is much the dearer of the two, and the model charges it: the electrolytic price the industry module already computes, against a methane price. What it does not do is add the electrolysis back into the electricity the mix has to serve — that would be a fixed point the compiler cannot express, since demand sets the mix and the mix would set demand. The extra electricity is reported instead of hidden.

The model assumed this for every tonne of hydrogen until v0.12.0, which was a strong assumption wearing no clothes: 87 TWh of electricity for hydrogen, and no way to ask what a reformer would cost instead.

A reformer burns and reforms methane. In this model 2050 methane is biomethane, so the colour of the hydrogen depends on the colour of the gas — and it draws on the same biomethane pool as everything else, which is the trade-off worth seeing.

ATR concentrates the CO2 in one stream, which is why it captures at 94% where a reformer with post-combustion capture struggles past 60%. On biomethane this goes negative, and that is not a trick of the accounting: the carbon came out of the air last season and is being put underground. It is also the single most contested line in the model — see the controversy tab — because it makes a scenario's arithmetic depend on a biomass supply chain the model does not represent.

Which of NESO's four 2050 pathways the scenario is built on. It selects a set of shares, not a quantity: the mix is scaled to whatever electricity the rest of the model needs, so choosing here answers "with what" and never "how much". The default is Holistic Transition, NESO's balanced net-zero case and the only one of the four that is neither the most electrified nor the most hydrogen-led. ONE WARNING THE SHARED DECLARATION CANNOT CARRY. Row 4 is Falling Behind, NESO's deliberate FAILURE case: it does not reach net zero and it burns 51 TWh of unabated gas in 2050. France has no equivalent, so the model has no field that says "this row is not a choice". The help above says it instead, and an interface that offers the four as interchangeable mixes is misrepresenting the source.

• NESO, Future Energy Scenarios 2025 (NESO Pathways 2025) — Data Workbook, sheet ES1 — Four pathways; the fifth series in the workbook, Ten Year Forecast, stops in 2035 and has no 2050 column.

The chemistry choice, and the sharpest trade-off in the account. LFP carries almost no cobalt (7 grams per MWh against 27 kg) and a quarter of the nickel, but 4.4 times the lithium — 490 kg per MWh against 111. There is no chemistry that is cheap in every metal at once, which is the point of putting it on a slider. Zero by default because the source scenario's 2050 reference is NMC 811.

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, France 2050 — finance_rate

A household and an industrial investor do not face the same cost of capital. Moving this rate from 4% to 8% raises the building indicator by about a third with no physical change at all, which is why it is a lever and not a hidden constant.

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, carbon.csv — linear to 150 €/tCO₂ in 2050

209.3 GBP/MWh — 20.93 p/kWh — is the 2025 price paid by the largest British industrial consumers, excluding the Climate Change Levy; the "very large" band pays 21.65 p/kWh and the all-consumer average 23.81. British industrial electricity is among the dearest in the IEA and it is a live policy question, so France's 70 €/MWh would erase the single most cited cause of British industrial decline. Note the range: the observed British price is above the whole French slider, which is the same structural finding as clinkerRate and a more consequential one, because every industrial cost in the model runs through this number. Two health warnings. This is a 2025 observation used as a 2050 assumption — the French value it replaces is a POMMES 2050 model output, and the two are not the same quantity. And it is in POUNDS: meta.currency is GBP and no exchange rate is applied anywhere in this package, so nothing here may be compared with a euro figure from another edition without declaring a rate and a year. What would close it: a UK 2050 industrial electricity price. FES 2025 publishes wholesale gas, coal, oil and carbon to 2050 and no electricity price at all.

• DESNZ, Quarterly Energy Prices (June 2026), Table 3.4.1 (annual, excluding CCL), non-domestic electricity by consumption band, United Kingdom — 2025: Extra Large 20.93 p/kWh, Very Large 21.65, Average 23.81. 2024: 21.70 / 22.50 / 25.73. 2023: 21.68 / 22.48 / 26.68. Read by extract/uk_prices_and_load_factors.py.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not British data: 550 is an ADEME order of magnitude with no primary publication behind it even in France, and it is carried here as 550 POUNDS. That is a currency substitution as well as a country one — the same convention this package uses for price_wood, and it silently makes the British figure about 15% larger in real terms. It is declared rather than converted, because inventing an exchange rate would bury a scenario assumption in a lookup. What would close it: the Seventh Carbon Budget's buildings cost assumptions, or the DESNZ retrofit cost evidence base. Also unresolved is the VAT question — renovation_vat — since the British rate depends on what the work is, and the boundary has moved several times.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml, retrofitCost — carried unchanged and relabelled in pounds — Not a British source. See NOTES.md.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not British data: 200 is an unsourced French 2050 pump price for biofuel and e-fuel, taxes included, carried here as 200 POUNDS. Currency substitution as well as country substitution, declared rather than converted, exactly as retrofitCost and price_wood are. What would close it: a UK 2050 road-fuel price — DESNZ's fossil fuel price assumptions plus a Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation buy-out, or the CCC's own transport fuel cost series.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml, liquidFuelPrice — carried unchanged and relabelled in pounds — Not a British source. See NOTES.md.

The passenger sufficiency control. At 100% it removes 45% of passenger travel and takes air traffic from the workbook's implicit 0%/y to -1.5%/y — the two demand assumptions the transport module is most sensitive to, moved together because a scenario that flies as much as today while driving 45% less is not a coherent story about sufficiency.

Moves the 20% of 2020 car demand still served by a liquid- or gas-fuelled car in the reference onto the electric fleet. The rail transfer is left where it is: electrifying the fleet and shifting trips off it are two different decisions, and folding them together would hide which one paid.

The reference already leaves only 10% of road freight thermal, so this is a small lever by construction, and that is the lesson: on the workbook's own trajectory the remaining road-freight emissions are not where the tonnes are. Hydrogen trucks are left alone, because arbitrating between hydrogen and battery is a detailed-view argument, not a coarse one.

Modal shift away from aviation, which is where the transport module's residual emissions concentrate once the fleet is electric. Distinct from "travel less": this one moves the same journeys onto another mode rather than removing them.

The building sufficiency control, in the unit of the lever it drives because it drives only that one. It starts at the reference 5% rather than at zero: the simple view offers effort beyond the reference scenario, never less than it.

As with sufficiency, this is the stock-performance lever shown in its own unit and bounded below by the reference scenario. 65% across the whole stock is the upper end the workbook contemplates, not a technical limit.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

The materials side of the building question, and the one control in the simple view whose whole interest is how far it cannot reach. At 100% the country builds 8 Mm² of housing and 8 of everything else a year instead of 20.4 and 19.9 — the order of magnitude the official housing-need study reaches for the 2040s — and frames 60% of it in timber instead of 12%. Together those take roughly a quarter off national cement demand. They take far less off steel, because new buildings are about a ninth of it; and they cannot touch the third of cement that is roads, buried networks and bridges, nor the third that nobody has attributed. Two ideas in one control is a deliberate departure. Building less and building in timber are different decisions, and the detailed view keeps them apart; here they are bundled because they are the same material choice seen from a distance, and because a simple view that separated them would have spent two of its dozen controls on one question.

Electrification of heating, with the two consequences that make it a real choice rather than a free win. The wood boilers go with the gas ones, because 95% electric plus 46 TWh of wood would allocate more heat than the stock needs; the resistance heaters go into air-water heat pumps, because electrifying on resistance is what makes the winter peak unmanageable. The peak still rises sharply, and that is the point of the control. Pushing sufficiency and renovation at the same time shrinks the heat need under a fixed 95% share, so the building readout may report over-allocated heat; the model reports it rather than absorbing it.

Hot water and cooking are about as much energy again as space heating, and neither is fully electric today. Their observed electric shares are the starting points, 100% the end.

The industrial sufficiency control. Freight demand is driven here rather than in transport on purpose: freight is what material consumption looks like on a road, and a scenario that halves plastic and cement demand while moving the same tonne-kilometres is not consistent. Steel goes from +30% to -40% against 2020, which is the widest swing any single number in the game commands. The output of the rest of industry is not driven, because its scale starts at today's output and has nowhere lower to go.

Every route change the five value chains offer, moved together: H-DRI steel, the CO2 + H2 olefin route and the biogenic carbon it uses, heat pumps for food-industry steam and direct heat, the lowest clinker ratio in range, and capture on what is left. The processes of the rest of industry are not driven, because the reference already sits at 100% of them.

Efficiency rather than sufficiency or fuel switching: the same product, less energy. At 100% it claims the whole potential RTE identifies and recovers all of the recoverable waste heat, neither of which is costless or instantaneous — the cost panel and the annex say what that means.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

The demand end of the food chain, moved as one plate. At 100% red meat falls from 40 to 20 kgec/cap/y — below INRAE's −40% and above ADEME's S1 divide-by-three — poultry from 28 to 18, dairy to 70% of the base year and the edible waste by the SNBC 3's own half. Exports are deliberately left alone: what a country sells is a separate argument from what it eats, and folding them together would let a diet lever cut a herd that is producing for somebody else's plate. The lesson is in the coupling rather than in the total. Two fifths of French beef is a by-product of the dairy herd, so cutting the milk makes the suckler herd grow to meet a beef demand that has not moved; only moving both together shrinks the cattle. A player who moves this control and watches the grassland released is watching the land account answer a food question, which is what the module is for.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

The sink side of the land account. At 100% the forest expands at the 90 kha/y IGN's inventory measures rather than the 15 the SNBC 3 plans, the harvest falls from 60 to 45 Mm³/y, the long-lived share of what is still cut rises from 30 to 35%, and artificialisation stops entirely — the Climat et Résilience law's 2050 destination, on this account's own measure. It is the control that most obviously costs something, and that is the point: the forest takes k out of the living stock for every cubic metre cut, 1.5 tCO₂ in France, so every cubic metre not cut deepens the sink and leaves the boiler. Pushed to the top this control takes about a fifth off the wood the scoreboard scores — 127 TWh to 102 — and a scenario that has also electrified its heating will not notice while one that leaned on wood will. The climate case the forest lives through is not driven: it is a scenario choice rather than an effort, it moves the answer further than any of these four, and it stays a fine lever the simple view draws on its own.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

The field end of the farm. At 100% the mineral dose on the conventional hectares falls to 50% of the base year and half the arable land goes organic, which between them deliver 26% of the 2024 nitrogen — well below the SNBC 3's own −54% and short of TYFA's zero — the legumes reach the 3.0 Mha the rotation studies stop at, and the whole 17.3 MtCO₂/y of soil-carbon practice INRAE itemises is taken. Four consequences are worth watching rather than assuming. The organic half yields two thirds of what it replaces, and since 0.24.0 the conventional half, at half the 2024 dose, keeps 0.79 of its yield — it is below the plateau — so this control costs arable land: the fields the same plates, herd and exports need grow by more than a third, and the crop block reports the shortfall, 4.2 Mha at 100%, against the land account rather than closing it — fertilising less is not free of land, and the page says by how much. Mineral nitrogen is also an industrial decision here: the same tonnage sets the ammonia the chain has to make, so fertilising less is a hydrogen saving as well as a nitrous-oxide one. More legumes raise the nitrogen balance while lowering the emissions — a legume hectare fixes more nitrogen than the mineral fertiliser its credit replaces, and only the difference between the two emission factors makes the net move downwards, so the balance is not a proxy for the tonnes. And the soil-carbon target is a thirty-year rate on a stock that saturates: the practice has to be kept up after 2050 for the carbon to stay where this account puts it.

Not shown in this edition. This country's package hides the control; the model reads the lever at the default in the next column.

The supply side of the biomass the rest of the game spends. At 100% the winter cover crops reach 3.0 Mha, the straw taken off the field reaches 30% — Agro-Transfert's ceiling for less than 2.5% of soil carbon lost — and the land growing fuel reaches 1.70 Mha, nearly three times today's and the IGEDD mission's own upper case. Between them they take the methane supply from 70 to about 86 TWh and the domestic liquid supply from 24 to 52. Two things this control does not do. It does not send manure to a digester: manureMethanised sits at 0 in the reference because the abatement it books rests on an enteric/manure split no French inventory publishes, and burying that argument inside an effort scale would be the wrong place for it. And the fuel crops it plants add no mineral nitrogen, because the dose is an intensity on an arable area held at the base year's: a fuel hectare displaces a food hectare that was already fertilised. The crop block counts the displaced food — the fuel hectare is arable land the plates, the herd and the exports can no longer use, and the headroom says by how much — but the fuel hectare itself adds no nitrogen and no nitrous oxide. That is the module's largest structural simplification and it sits directly under this control.

The workbook converts electricity to hydrogen at 60%. POMMES-INDUSTRY uses 45 MWh of electricity per tonne of hydrogen, which is 74%. The model keeps the workbook value so the cost layer and the electricity indicator describe the same hydrogen; hydrogen is therefore about 40% more expensive here than a POMMES-native calculation gives.

• Teaching workbook, "General hypotheses" sheet E11

Electricity in, liquid e-fuel out, across the whole chain: electrolysis, CO2 supply, synthesis and upgrading. Concawe's techno-economic assessment gives 38% when the carbon comes from direct air capture and 44% when it comes from a concentrated industrial source, and 0.4 sits between the two. It is a whole-barrel figure, not a kerosene-only one: Fischer-Tropsch sends roughly a fifth of its liquids to gasoline and diesel, so the electricity behind one tonne of jet fuel alone is higher — about 38 MWh, or 3.2 kWh per kWh burnt. Use this parameter for total liquid demand, which is what the equations do, and do not quote it as an aviation figure.

• Concawe 2022, E-Fuels: a techno-economic assessment of European domestic production and imports towards 2050 (38% DAC, 44% CCU)
• Boigontier & Girard 2024, Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs), MINES Paris - PSL / Zenon Research
• Teaching workbook, "General hypotheses" sheet E10

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: 79 gCO₂/kWh is the French workbook's LIFE-CYCLE factor and no life-cycle factor was secured for the British grid. Two British anchors exist and NEITHER is a substitute, because both are generation-basis, combustion-only figures and this constant is life-cycle: NESO gives 117.85 gCO₂/kWh for GB generation in 2024, and Carbon Brief 124 for the UK including net imports. Putting a combustion figure here would roughly halve the gap the game is built to show. A SECOND TRAP, worth recording before anyone fills this in from FES: the FES 2050 carbon intensity of GB generation is NEGATIVE — −25.45 gCO₂/kWh in Holistic Transition, −36.67 in Electric Engagement — because BECCS is booked inside the power sector. A negative emission factor on the electricity carrier would break every constructive account in this model. The excluding-BECCS series (+1.23 and +1.46) is the one to use, with the removals booked in techSink. What would close it: the DESNZ/DEFRA greenhouse gas conversion factors for company reporting, whose "electricity generated" scope-2 factor plus the well-to-tank and transmission-and-distribution factors are the closest official UK analogue to the French life-cycle value.

• NESO, FES 2025 Data Workbook, sheet ES1, 'CO2 Intensity of Generation (gCO2/kWh)' — the British anchor that is NOT used here — 117.853559 gCO₂/kWh in 2024, identical across pathways because it is history. Generation basis, Great Britain.

A gas or oil water heater, standing losses included.

• ADEME orders of magnitude for domestic hot water production

Above one because it is not all resistance: a 2050 electric water heater stock is a mix of resistance tanks and heat-pump water heaters, the latter at a COP near 3. Two is the blend assumed here and it is an assumption, not a measurement — the honest range runs from 1.0 if nothing changes to near 3 if the stock is heat pumps. It sets how much electricity electrifying hot water actually costs, so it is worth arguing about.

• ADEME, chauffe-eau thermodynamique — COP de 2,5 à 3,5 selon l'installation

• Standard hob efficiencies; a gas burner loses most of its heat around the pan

Induction. The gap with gas is the widest of any usage in the model.

• Standard induction hob efficiency

The carbon actually in the molecule, released whether it is burned or reformed. Distinct from efGas, which is 25 gCO₂/kWh in 2050 because the model's methane is biomethane and the convention books its carbon against the digester feedstock rather than the flame. Both numbers are needed and they answer different questions. efGas answers "what does burning this count as?"; this one answers "how much carbon is there to capture?" A capture plant removes molecules, not conventions.

• Base Carbone ADEME — combustion du gaz naturel, facteur direct

• Teaching workbook, "Synthesis" sheet S42

• Teaching workbook, "Synthesis" sheet S44

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the same problem as the efWood lever, in the base year. 27 gCO₂/kWh is the fossil energy of the French wood chain; the British chain ships a large share of its pellets from North America. See efWood for what would close it.

• See the efWood lever: NESO FES 2025 sheet F.70 gives the imported share of GB bioenergy supply, which is why the French figure does not travel

Coking coal, 94.6 kgCO₂ per GJ, converted at 3.6 GJ/MWh. The workbook declares coal at 0 gCO₂/kWh in its factor table and then charges it at the hydrogen factor, 66.7 gCO₂/kWh, which is neither. This model uses the published factor and removes the double count that resulted — see steel_bf_process_residual.

• IPCC 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, vol. 2 table 1.4 — coking coal, 94.6 kgCO₂/GJ

4.0 Mt of UK crude steel in 2024, of which 71.7% by the oxygen route. The year straddles the closure of the Port Talbot blast furnaces in September 2024, so it is the last year in which Britain had a primary steel industry at all and it is already only a third of France's. A 2025 figure would be close to zero on this row.

• worldsteel, World Steel in Figures 2025 — United Kingdom — 4.0 Mt crude steel in 2024; 71.7% oxygen, 28.3% electric. 4000 × 0.717 = 2868 kt.

4000 × 0.283. From 2025 this is effectively the whole of British steel: the electric arc furnace at Port Talbot is due in 2027-28 and until it arrives the country is an importer of primary steel.

• worldsteel, World Steel in Figures 2025 — United Kingdom — 4.0 Mt crude steel in 2024, 28.3% electric.

The total direct intensity of the integrated route — every source on site, not a process term. It was inherited from the teaching workbook as "the blast furnace's process figure", and under that name it had been counted on top of the coal it mostly is. Re-sourced in 0.27.0, it holds: the IPCC Tier 1 defaults summed over the chain give 1.87 tCO₂/t (1.46 for the converter, which already includes the blast furnace, plus 0.56 per tonne of coke and 0.20 per tonne of sinter); the EU ETS benchmarks, set on the best tenth of European plants, chain to about 1.4; and ArcelorMittal Dunkerque, at 6.8 Mt of steel and about 12 MtCO₂ a year, is at 1.76. The model charges the route's coal its own published factor, so this figure is never booked as such: steel_bf_process_residual keeps the remainder. The limitation: 1.76 and the 0.62 t of coal charged beside it describe a furnace about 20% better than the world average — worldsteel's route average is 780 kg of coal, which at this model's factor alone would release 2.08 t. The two are consistent with each other and should be changed together or not at all.

• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 3, Ch. 4, Table 4.1 p. 4.25 — BOF 1.46, coke 0.56, sinter 0.20 tCO₂/t
• Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/447, Annex — hot metal 1.288, sintered ore 0.157, coke 0.217 allowances/t
• Direction générale des Entreprises (15 January 2024), France 2030 : soutien à la décarbonation d'ArcelorMittal Dunkerque — 6.8 Mt/y, ≈ 12 MtCO₂/y
• worldsteel, Raw materials — 780 kg of metallurgical coal per tonne of BF-BOF steel

What an electric furnace emits on site besides its electricity: the graphite electrodes it burns and the carbon charged to foam the slag and carburise the melt. The IPCC's Tier 1 default, and the floor of the published range — the EU ETS benchmark for carbon steel is 0.215, because it also covers the gas burners and the ladle furnace. It applies to both electric routes, from scrap and from hydrogen-reduced iron, since both end in the same furnace. Until 0.27.0 the model gave these two rows no direct term at all, so the only steel that emitted on site was the blast furnace's.

• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 3, Ch. 4, Table 4.1 p. 4.25 — EAF 0.08 tCO₂/t
• Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/447, Annex — EAF carbon steel 0.215, high-alloy 0.268 allowances/t

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: no UK olefin production statistic was secured. 1 200 kt is an order-of-magnitude figure for UK ethylene plus propylene capacity — the crackers at Grangemouth and on Teesside — and it is roughly a third of France's 3 656 kt, which is the right direction and not a measurement. The value is left where it was when 0.23.0 corrected the French anchor: it was never derived from it, only compared with it, so there was no arithmetic to redo. It is the weakest number in this file after building_vector. It also leaves a known double count: the industry_other table's chemicals_other group comes from the CCC's "Chemicals" sub-sector, which still contains the olefin chain, so olefin energy is counted twice. What would close it: PRODCOM's UK successor (ONS UK Manufacturers' Sales by Product, product 20141), or the Chemical Industries Association's annual statistics.

• No primary source secured. Recorded as provisional, per the repository's provenance rules.

The carbon a tonne of olefin can physically hold, which is the ceiling on any claim that the product stores CO₂. Ethylene and propylene are both 85.63% carbon by mass, so a tonne holds 0.8563 × 44.009 / 12.011 = 3.138 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. Nothing about the route changes it: it is the polymer's own composition. It replaces a coefficient of 4.3 that was 37% above this ceiling. The old figure came from the teaching workbook's "Industry" sheet K48 with no derivation, and it reproduces exactly as the CO₂ fed to the front of the route rather than the carbon locked in the product: 2.988 tonnes of methanol per tonne of olefin (methanol_per_olefin, published) times the 1.3735 tCO₂ per tonne of methanol that stoichiometry demands is 4.105, and 3.138 / 4.105 = 0.765 is an ordinary light-olefin selectivity for a methanol-to-olefins step. The 0.97 tCO₂ of difference leaves as C₄⁺, coke and purge gas; it is consumed by the plant, not stored by the polymer, and crediting it was double-counting the losses as a removal.

• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 3, Ch. 1 §1.3.1 — feedstock carbon is stored, and released when the product is oxidised
• Atomic masses: C 12.011, O 15.999, H 1.008 (IUPAC 2021)

7.3 Mt of cement in 2024 — the lowest since 1950 — with 6.4 Mt of clinker, a clinker factor of 0.877. Imports were 32% of sales. The figure is the Mineral Products Association's, reported in the trade press rather than taken from an MPA publication, which is why it is provisional and not published.

• The Chemical Engineer, reporting Mineral Products Association data (2025) — UK cement production 7.3 Mt and clinker 6.4 Mt in 2024; imports 32% of sales.

The decarbonation of the limestone, and nothing else: 6 193 ktCO₂ of calcination in the French inventory for 11 759 kt of clinker in 2020. The neighbouring years give 0.524 (2019) and 0.531 (2021), and it is what stoichiometry predicts: the IPCC's 0.51 × 1.02 for kiln dust = 0.52 for a 65%-lime clinker, 0.53 at 67%. No change of kiln fuel can remove it — only capture, or less clinker. It was 0.7925, and that was a total wearing the wrong name. The old value was 10.2 MtCO₂ over 12.87 Mt of clinker. 10.2 Mt is not the calcination line for any year France has published — that line ran 6.19 to 6.81 over 2015–2021 — but it is inside the range of the whole cement industry's CO₂, calcination and kiln fuel. And 12.87 Mt was not an observation: it is 16 500 × 0.78, this model's own cement anchor times the top of its own clinkerRate slider. The kiln fuel is charged separately through the energy account, so it was emitted twice — and carbonCapture, which multiplies this term, was capturing fuel CO₂ under a name that said it could not. The limitation. 0.527 is a French fleet average for one year, and it moves with the lime content of the clinker and with how much of the lime comes from slag or ash instead of carbonate: the IPCC's range is 0.47 to 0.53. It is also domestic clinker; about a quarter of the clinker behind French cement is calcined abroad, outside this perimeter.

• Conseil national de l'industrie / DGE (May 2023), Feuille de route de décarbonation de la filière Ciment, Tableau 2-1 p. 7 — calcination 6 809 / 6 193 / 6 489 ktCO₂ in 2019 / 2020 / 2021 (SECTEN, GEREP)
• France Ciment / SFIC, Le ciment en chiffres 2022, p. 4 — clinker 13 005 / 11 759 / 12 222 kt in 2019 / 2020 / 2021
• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 3, Ch. 2, Eq. 2.4 p. 2.12 — EF = 0.51 × 1.02 = 0.52 tCO₂/t clinker
• See docs/industry/steel_and_cement_base.md, §4

What a French kiln burns to make a tonne of clinker: 3 830 MJ in 2021, down from 3 942 in 2015. It closes against the roadmap's own statement that the sector burned 13 TWh of heat in 2021 for 12 222 kt of clinker — three published quantities, one identity, no residual. The sector aims at 3 600 MJ in 2030 and 3 500 in 2050, which is the 9% the industrial efficiency lever can take off. It replaced 0.700 in 0.29.0, the teaching workbook's figure, a third short.

• Feuille de route de décarbonation de la filière Ciment (May 2023), Tableau 3-1 p. 12 — 3 942 MJ/t (2015), 3 830 (2021), 3 600 (2030), 3 500 (2050); p. 8 — 13 TWh of heat in 2021

The biomass share of the waste a French kiln burns: 52% in 2021, from 49% in 2015 — animal meal, wood waste, sludge — where the rest is tyres, solvents, oils and plastic-rich refuse-derived fuel. The biomass half is charged to the wood carrier; the fossil half goes with the coke and the coal, whose emission factor it shares within a few per cent. The sector aims at 60% by 2050; this keeps the observed share, because a higher one needs a biomass supply the model would have to find somewhere.

• Feuille de route de décarbonation de la filière Ciment (May 2023), Tableaux 3-2 and 3-3 p. 12 — substitution rate 38% (2015), 44% (2021), 85% (2050); biomass share of the waste 49%, 52%, 60%

7.1 MtCO₂ of fossil carbon in 2024: the non-biomass fraction of the municipal waste burned in energy-from-waste plants, which the inventory books under power stations, 1A1ai, and keeps out of the waste sector. 63 plants burned 16.8 Mt that year; municipal waste is a fifth of electricity-supply emissions. The operators' own reports add up to 7.6 Mt, 8% more, by a different method; the inventory is kept. The plastic share of it is not published, and the French 95% is carried across.

• DESNZ (2026), Final UK greenhouse gas emissions statistics 1990–2024, by-source dataset, 1A1ai municipal solid waste non-biomass fraction — 7.068 MtCO₂ (2024)
• DESNZ, 2024 UK greenhouse gas emissions, final figures, statistical release, pp. 5 and 13 — incinerators generating energy from waste are in electricity supply
• Tolvik Consulting (April 2025), UK Energy from Waste Statistics 2024, pp. 1–2 and Figure 19 — 63 plants, 16.82 Mt, 7.63 MtCO₂ fossil from operators' reports

How much of an incinerator's fossil CO₂ is plastic: 95%. French residual household waste is 14.7% plastic by mass, 2 410 kt a year (ADEME, MODECOM 2017). At the IPCC's defaults — plastics are 75% carbon and all of it fossil — that is 6.63 MtCO₂. Everything else in the bin that carries fossil carbon adds 0.35: textiles 0.15 (20% of their carbon is fossil), nappies and other hygiene products 0.12, shoes and leather 0.06, soiled paper 0.02. 6.63 / 6.98 = 0.95. It is what makes plasticReduction reach the incinerator, and it is why the other 5% does not move with it. The limitation: the composition is household waste, and the fleet also burns commercial waste, which is if anything more plastic; the composites and small appliances — plastic as well — are left out rather than guessed, which errs low.

• ADEME (2019), MODECOM 2017, Campagne nationale de caractérisation des déchets ménagers et assimilés, p. 16 — OMR composition: plastics 14.7% (2 410 kt), textiles 3.0% (497 kt), nappies 691 kt, other hygiene 496 kt, soiled paper 1 095 kt, shoes 121 kt, leather goods 34 kt
• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5, Ch. 2, Table 2.4 — dry matter, carbon and fossil-carbon fractions: plastics 100/75/100%, textiles 80/50/20%, nappies 40/70/10%, rubber and leather 84/67/20%, paper 90/46/1%

The average biogenic content the British plants reported for 2024, measured by radiocarbon at sixteen of them: 54.6%, in a range of 41.5 to 68%.

• Tolvik Consulting (April 2025), UK Energy from Waste Statistics 2024, pp. 9–10 — average reported biogenic content 54.6% (range 41.5–68.0%)

The fossil CO₂ a tonne of plastic releases when it burns: 75% carbon, all of it fossil, times 44/12. It converts the plastic part of the incinerators' CO₂ back into tonnes, which is what a recycling line receives and draws its electricity on.

• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5, Ch. 2, Table 2.4 — plastics: dry matter 100%, carbon 75%, fossil fraction 100%; the same 2.75 is the factor FNADE/FEDENE (2023) attributes to Citepa

Sorting, washing, extruding: the JRC gives 0.3 to 0.7 MWh of electricity a tonne for mechanical recycling and next to no heat. The middle is taken. Chemical recycling by pyrolysis would need more, and no inventory of it is public.

• JRC (2023), Environmental and economic assessment of plastic waste recycling, EUR 31423, PDF p. 54

Steam demand of the UK food, drink and tobacco industry, taken as ECUK's LOW-TEMPERATURE PROCESS end use: 1 692.79 ktoe = 19.687 TWh in 2024, against France's 21.876. The two food industries are of comparable size. Provisional because the number is published and the MAPPING is mine: ECUK has no "steam" category, and low-temperature process heat in food is overwhelmingly raised as steam but not entirely. A second caveat travels with any ECUK end-use figure: Table U4's splits are modelled proportions applied to the sub-sector fuel totals, published in Table U7.

• DESNZ, ECUK 2025 — End Uses data tables, Table U4, DUKES sector 'Food, beverages etc', 2024 — Low temperature process 1 692.79 ktoe = 19.687 TWh at 1 ktoe = 0.01163 TWh. Whole sector 31.918 TWh, of which drying/separation 2.252, motors 2.697, refrigeration 2.821, other 4.462; high-temperature process and space heating are nil.

Direct (non-steam) process heat, taken as ECUK's DRYING/SEPARATION plus HIGH-TEMPERATURE PROCESS end uses. 2.252 TWh against France's 10.693. READ THIS BEFORE USING IT. The British steam-to-direct-heat ratio comes out at 8.7 against France's 2.05, and that is a classification artefact as much as a real difference: ECUK books the UK food industry's high-temperature process heat as ZERO and puts nearly everything into low temperature process, so any direct-fired oven or fryer below ECUK's threshold is inside food_steam_demand. The SUM of the two constants — 21.94 TWh for GB against 32.57 for France — is far more robust than either alone, and the two heat-pump levers that act on them separately will behave differently here partly for a British reason and partly for a statistical one.

• DESNZ, ECUK 2025 — End Uses data tables, Table U4, 'Food, beverages etc', 2024 — Drying / separation 193.63 ktoe = 2.252 TWh; high temperature process = 0.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: a residual hydrogen use in the food industry, unaffected by any lever. The CCC's Balanced Pathway gives the UK food and drink sector 0.003 TWh of hydrogen in 2050 and none in 2025, so the true British base-year figure is probably nearer zero than 0.138 — but "probably nearer zero" is not a measurement. The quantity is too small to change any result.

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget full dataset, 'Subsector-level data', Food and drink, 'Energy: gross demand hydrogen' — 0.000 TWh in 2025, 0.003 TWh in 2050 — the reason the French value is suspect, not a replacement for it.

1.0, and that is a statement about how the British stock table was built rather than a coincidence. France's 0.6528 exists because the workbook's surfacic needs are theoretical pre-retrofit needs whose sum overstates observed consumption by half. The British building_segment is built the other way round: each system's surfacic need is its OBSERVED delivered energy (NESO FES sheet ED7, 2024), netted of hot water using ECUK's space-heating share, multiplied by the system's seasonal efficiency and divided by its floor area. The product of surface and surfacic need is therefore the observed heat need by construction, and the calibration has nothing left to correct. The consequence for a reader: British surfacic needs are NOT comparable with French ones. 83.7 kWh/m²/y for a gas-heated British home is a calibrated need; the French table's 159 for the same segment is a theoretical one that is then scaled down by 0.6528 to 104. Compare 0.6528 × the French number with the British one, or compare nothing.

• Computed by extract/gb_building_segment.py from NESO FES 2025 sheet ED7 and DESNZ ECUK 2025 Tables U3 and U5 — Σ(surface × surfacic need) = 323.3507 TWh and the observed space-heat need is 323.3507 TWh, so the ratio is 1.000000.

The winter power drawn by electric SPACE HEATING at the average-cold-spell system peak, on the game's building perimeter (residential + tertiary): 2.945 GW residential plus 2.263 GW commercial. Against France's 40 GW. That ratio is not an error and it is the most important single number in this package. France heats about 40% of its dwellings with electric resistance; the United Kingdom heats 82.5% of its with a gas boiler and only 8.4% with anything electric. The British winter peak is a GAS peak — NESO reports a 1-in-20 gas peak of 5 214 GWh/day beside a 58 GW electricity peak — which is why the British electricity system has room for heat pumps that the French one does not, and why the same lever teaches a different lesson on the two sides of the Channel. OTHER_COUNTRIES.md and this package's own first pass both called this unbuildable, on the ground that NESO publishes the SYSTEM peak and not the electric-heating part of it. That was right about the Winter Outlook and wrong about the data workbook: sheet ED7 carries a Peak ACS data type, in GW, for the electricity fuel only, by sector and heating technology. What it anchors: the model scales this figure by the ratio of its own 2050 and base-year peak loads. FES's own 2050 values are the cross-check — 43.6 GW in Holistic Transition, 53.0 in Electric Engagement, 44.2 in Hydrogen Evolution, 28.2 in Falling Behind — so a reference run landing far outside 28-53 GW is a bug and not a scenario.

• NESO, FES 2025 Data Workbook, sheet ED7 'Heat demand summary', Data Type 'Peak ACS', Units GW, Fuel electricity, sectors Residential and Commercial, 2024 — Residential 2.945 GW = air-source heat pumps 0.354 + ground-source 0.039 + electric resistive 2.206 + electric storage 0.288 + low-carbon district heating 0.040 + hybrids 0.018. Commercial 2.263 GW. Industrial (1.421 GW) is excluded, because the game's building sector is residential plus tertiary. 2023 gives 5.012 GW. Read by extract/fes_electricity.py.
• NESO, Winter Outlook 2024/25 — the whole-system anchor, for contrast — "Peak average cold spell demand of 59.8 GW including operating reserve". Electric heating is therefore about 9% of the British winter peak today.

Domestic transport: road, rail, domestic aviation, domestic and military shipping. Down only 11% on 1990 and the largest emitting sector since 2015, at 30% of the UK total. Road vehicles are 90% of it.

• DESNZ, 2024 UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions Final Figures — statistical release, Table 1, p.29

Buildings and product uses. Down 25% on 1990 but UP 4% on 2023. Of the total, 66% residential, 16% commercial, 11% public sector and 6% product uses — the last being F-gases from air conditioning, aerosols and inhalers, which is the one place this sector is wider than fuel combustion in buildings.

• DESNZ, 2024 final GHG emissions statistics — statistical release, Table 1 p.29 and the Buildings section p.17

Down 70% on 1990 and 7% on 2023 alone, largely because the Port Talbot blast furnaces closed in September 2024. A game built on this baseline is playing an industry that has already had most of its heavy end removed, which is a different starting position from France's.

• DESNZ, 2024 final GHG emissions statistics — statistical release, Table 1, p.29

The CCC Balanced Pathway, on the same Territorial Emissions Sectors cut as the 2024 figure above, so the two are comparable without a perimeter break. 92% below 2024. The CCC gets there with 9.2 MtCO₂ a year captured and stored and 73% of industrial energy electric.

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget full dataset, 'Alt. sector classifications', TES 'Industry', Balanced Pathway, 2050

Down only 15% on 1990. In 2024 agriculture emissions equalled industry's for the first time in the series — the two lines are both 46.5 and they crossed this year.

• DESNZ, 2024 final GHG emissions statistics — statistical release, Table 1 p.29 and the Agriculture section p.19

Down only 43% on 2024. By 2050 agriculture is the largest emitting sector in the United Kingdom by a factor of seven, and the CCC balances it against the land-use sink rather than abating it.

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget full dataset, TES 'Agriculture', Balanced Pathway, 2050

• DESNZ, 2024 final GHG emissions statistics — statistical release, Table 1, p.29

Down 79% on 2024. What is left is legacy landfill methane.

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget full dataset, TES 'Waste', Balanced Pathway, 2050

Electricity supply 37.7 plus fuel supply 28.8. Down 76% on 1990. The last coal-fired power station closed in September 2024.

• DESNZ, 2024 final GHG emissions statistics — statistical release, Table 1, p.29 — Electricity supply 37.7 + fuel supply 28.8 = 66.5 MtCO₂e.

Electricity supply 1.586060 plus fuel supply 1.572558. Note what it implies: about 3 MtCO₂e for the whole energy branch against roughly 760-820 TWh of generation, i.e. around 4 gCO₂/kWh at the stack — far below any life-cycle factor. That contrast is the point of the national reconciliation panel.

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget full dataset, TES 'Electricity supply' + 'Fuel supply', Balanced Pathway, 2050

POSITIVE, which on this file's convention means a net SOURCE. This is the number that surprises anyone porting the French interface: UK land use emits, and has in almost every year since 1990. Peatland is the largest source and forestry the dominant sink, and the two roughly cancel. France's line is −52 MtCO₂e; Britain's is +0.3. It is also the most uncertain sector in the inventory, with a 95% confidence interval that spans zero.

• DESNZ, 2024 final GHG emissions statistics — statistical release, Table 1 p.29, LULUCF section p.21, uncertainty Figure 21 p.27

NEGATIVE, i.e. a net sink, and the line has to CROSS ZERO to get there: +1.24 in 2035, −1.87 in 2040, −29.89 in 2050. Afforestation, peatland restoration and taking land out of agriculture.

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget full dataset, TES 'LULUCF', Balanced Pathway, 2050

Engineered removals. Unlike France's −43, which is a closure residual, this is a published pathway variable: BECCS, direct air capture, enhanced weathering and biochar, and wood in construction.

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget full dataset, TES 'Engineered removals', Balanced Pathway, 2050

The strategy's GROSS national total at the horizon: the six sectors of the Balanced Pathway summed — 3.158618 + 3.803978 + 2.968872 + 2.124239 + 26.389872 + 4.527421 = 42.973 MtCO₂e. The British analogue of France's 63. The constant's name is French and the interface calls it "the strategy". For the United Kingdom it is ADVICE, not law: the Climate Change Act sets a net-zero duty for 2050 and five-year budgets, and says nothing about sectors. The sector split is the Climate Change Committee's recommendation, and the prose says so in both languages. Adding the Balanced Pathway's LULUCF (−29.892), engineered removals (−35.817) and international aviation and shipping (+21.629) gives −1.107, the CCC's published net total of −1.1 (Table 3.4, p.73).

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget full dataset, 'Alt. sector classifications', TES sectors, Balanced Pathway, 2050 — Closure checked at 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2050 by extract/ccc_pathway.py.

What the model represents of British industry on the inventory's combustion-plus-process basis, used only as a diagnostic against the inventory's own 46.5 MtCO₂e industry line. It is larger than the inventory's figure, as France's is, and for the same two reasons plus one British one. The model's industry perimeter is the five value chains plus the CCC's ten industrial sub-sectors less the three the chains already cover; the CCC's industrial energy total for 2025 is 280 TWh where ECUK's observed 2024 manufacturing total is 227 TWh, because the CCC's "Industry" also carries non-road mobile machinery and refinery own-use. The British extra is Port Talbot: the inventory's 46.5 is a 2024 average that already contains the closure, and the model's steel chain runs a full year of blast-furnace production. This is a rounded diagnostic and there is no exact formula behind it; the shared file's means says as much. It is not added to anything.

• Derived from this file's own industry tables against DESNZ 2024 final GHG statistics, Table 1 p.29

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the fraction of industrial fuel a national efficiency study finds recoverable, measured by RTE after CEREN on French industry. It is a ratio rather than a stock, so it travels better than most of the French numbers here, but it is still measured on one country's industry and British industry is not French industry — it is smaller, less energy-intensive per unit of value added, and at a fifty-year low. What would close it: the industrial energy-efficiency potential in DESNZ's Industrial Decarbonisation Strategy evidence base, or the CCC's own energy-efficiency abatement wedge for industry, which the Balanced Pathway quantifies but does not publish as a ceiling.

• No UK source secured. RTE after CEREN, French industry — recorded as provisional.

42.8 MJ/kg, the standard lower heating value of jet A-1.

• Standard lower heating value of aviation kerosene

The anchor for today's ticket. Everything that is not fuel is derived from it through the fuel share of operating cost, so an error here moves the whole non-fuel block.

• EASA, European Aviation Environmental Report 2025, fuel price 2023

Combustion only — neither the upstream chain nor non-CO₂ effects.

• ICAO; corroborated by the US Energy Information Administration

2050 minus the 2024 base year of the service-demand data.

2050 minus the 2024 base year of the traffic and efficiency statistics.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the French statistic for kerosene burned per passenger-kilometre in 2024, freight in the holds included. The CCC publishes the British counterpart in a different unit — 0.42 kWh per passenger-kilometre of fossil fuel intensity in 2023, down from 0.76 in 1990 — which is about 35 g/pkm at the model's own lower heating value, so the British figure is HIGHER than the French one and carrying 29.28 flatters the UK. It was not converted here because the two statistics do not have the same treatment of freight and load factor, and a conversion that hides that is worse than a labelled placeholder. What would close it: DfT's aviation statistics (AVI) with UK passenger-kilometres and fuel uplift on a stated basis.

• Climate Change Committee, The Seventh Carbon Budget, Section 7.6.1, p.223 — the British figure that is NOT used here — "Efficiency improvements such as increased plane loadings have reduced the fossil fuel intensity of aviation from 0.76 kWh/passenger-km in 1990 to 0.42 kWh/passenger-km in 2023."

Lower heating values, used to turn POMMES prices per tonne into prices per MWh.

• Standard lower heating values for hard coal, natural gas and hydrogen

• Standard lower heating value of methane

• Standard lower heating value of hydrogen

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, import_hourly.csv, France 2050

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, import_hourly.csv, France 2050

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, import_hourly.csv, France 2050

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, import_hourly.csv, France 2050

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, import_hourly.csv, France 2050

UK average domestic electricity unit price, all payment methods, calendar year 2025: £0.25746/kWh. Against France's 260 €/MWh, British households pay 15-20% more per kilowatt-hour at any plausible rate — and that is the SMALLER of the two differences that matter. What the unit price leaves out: a standing charge of £193.98 a year for electricity and £115.82 for gas, about £310 before a single kilowatt-hour. The model has no slot for it, so anything it prints as a household saving is an overestimate.

• DESNZ, Quarterly Energy Prices (June 2026), Table 2.2.4, United Kingdom, 'Overall' payment method — 2025: 0.25746 £/kWh, fixed 193.98 £/y. 2024: 258.27 £/MWh. 2023: 303.76. Prices include VAT at 5%. Read by extract/uk_prices_and_load_factors.py.

UK average domestic gas unit price, all payment methods, 2025: £0.06417/kWh on a gross calorific basis, which is how British gas is metered and billed and is the same convention as the French figure. Against France's 134 €/MWh. THIS is the difference that matters. British gas is roughly half the price of French gas, and the ratio of electricity to gas at the British meter is 4.0 against about 1.9 in France. That single ratio explains most of what is hard about British building decarbonisation and it belongs on the screen beside the heat-pump levers: a heat pump with a seasonal COP of 3 saves a French household money and loses a British one money, before any capital cost — not because the physics differs but because Britain loads policy costs onto electricity and not onto gas. Any cost result that does not reproduce that has a bug.

• DESNZ, Quarterly Energy Prices (June 2026), Table 2.3.4, United Kingdom, 'Overall' payment method — 2025: 0.06417 £/kWh, fixed 115.82 £/y. 2024: 65.43 £/MWh. 2023: 88.05. Includes VAT at 5%.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: 77.5 is Propellet's French bulk-pellet index in euros per MWh, carried across and relabelled as pounds, which is a currency substitution as well as a country one. British pellet prices are quoted by the Wood Heat Association and are typically higher, because a larger share of the fuel is imported. What would close it: the Wood Heat Association / REA pellet price index, or DESNZ's Non-domestic and domestic RHI fuel price evidence.

• No UK source secured. Propellet France, Q2 2025, 7.75 c€/kWh for bulk pellets — recorded as provisional.

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv

Structural concrete dosages run roughly 250 to 400 kg a cubic metre, and 300 is the middle of the structural range. It is not the 266 kg a cubic metre that the cement-and-concrete literature uses for "béton équivalent": that figure is a whole-economy bookkeeping factor that already absorbs mortars, renders, screeds and bagged cement, and applying it to building cement alone overstates the concrete by about seven tenths. Used only to express the construction module's cement as a concrete tonnage in the materials account; no emission depends on it.

• Usual structural concrete dosage range; cross-checked against The Shift Project's 266 kg/m³ béton-équivalent factor, which is a different perimeter

Ordinary reinforced structural concrete. Presentation only, like the dosage above.

• Standard value for ordinary reinforced concrete, used in the comparative life-cycle assessment this module's timber coefficients come from

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv

The cement kiln fuel appears in the cost model but NOT in the physical model, which gives cement only its grinding electricity. Cement combustion CO₂ is therefore missing from the emissions account — a known defect of the workbook, recorded here rather than silently patched.

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv, solid_fuels mode 1

What an amine capture plant on a cement stack draws, per tonne of clinker, when it captures 95% of the stack: the heat that regenerates the solvent, raised electrically, plus the compression and the fans. Per tonne captured it is 0.54 / (0.95 × 0.86) = 0.66 MWh, which is where the published figures put it: an advanced solvent needs 2.3 to 3.3 GJ of heat a tonne at the reboiler, and compression to 150 bar another 132 kWh. A cement works has no steam to spare, unlike an incinerator, so the heat has to be raised, and since 0.32.0 the model raises it with electricity the power system has to supply. The capture plant treats the whole stack, the biogenic CO₂ of the kiln's waste included, so this is charged per tonne of clinker rather than per fossil tonne.

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv — reference_plant_CCS less reference_plant
• Raillard-Cazanove (2024), PhD thesis, Table 2.11 p. 43, after Quevedo Parra & Romano (2023) — MEA capture on a cement kiln: 270 €/t clinker of capacity, 95% captured, 0.54 MWh/t clinker
• Bui et al. (2018), Carbon capture and storage (CCS): the way forward, Energy Environ. Sci. 11, 1062, Table 4 — reboiler heat 3.6–4.0 GJ/tCO₂ for MEA, 2.3–3.3 for advanced solvents
• Keith et al. (2018), A Process for Capturing CO₂ from the Atmosphere, Joule 2, 1573, Table 1 — compression 1 to 150 bar, 132 kWh/tCO₂

The capture rate at which cement_capture_extra_electricity was measured. The lever's share of the stack is divided by it, so the plant draws its published figure exactly at 95% and proportionally less below.

• Raillard-Cazanove (2024), PhD thesis, Table 2.11 p. 43, after Quevedo Parra & Romano (2023)

The biogenic CO₂ the biomass half of a kiln's waste releases — animal meal, wood waste, sludge — at the IPCC's default for "other primary solid biomass", 100 t a terajoule. It is never counted in the emissions; it is the tonnage a capture plant takes with the fossil, and so what the transport and storage of cement capture are charged on.

• IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 2, Ch. 2, Table 2.2 — other primary solid biomass, 100 000 kgCO₂/TJ

What capture costs an incinerator in electricity, per tonne captured, fossil and biogenic alike. The plant has its own steam: the IEAGHG's two reference plants, 20 MWe each, extract 40 to 45% of the turbine's steam at 6 bar to regenerate the solvent at 3 GJ a tonne, which costs them 6.0 and 6.8 MWe, and compression and liquefaction take 2.8 and 3.2 MWe more. Over 27.9 and 31.8 t captured an hour, both come to 0.315 MWh a tonne, and both halve the plant's net output. The electricity an incinerator no longer exports is electricity the mix has to produce, so the model books it as a demand. Where the plant feeds a heat network a heat pump can win back part of it; the IEAGHG's third case does, and this does not.

• IEAGHG (2020), CCS on Waste to Energy, Technical Report 2020-06, Section A, sheet 60 of 84 — cases 1 and 2: 6 + 2.8 MWe and 6.8 + 3.2 MWe for 90% capture of 31 and 35.3 tCO₂/h

The capture plant on an incinerator — its capital and the running costs that are not energy — per tonne captured. The energy is charged apart, at the industrial electricity price, and so are transport and storage. Provisional, and the evidence is thin at both ends. The one techno-economic study of a retrofit gives a cost of capture of 90 to 156 € a tonne for plants of 3 to 12 kt a year, a tenth of a French incinerator. The one plant being built, Oslo's Klemetsrud, budgets 8.4 billion kroner at P50 for 350 kt a year, about 720 M€: at this model's 8% over 25 years that is close to 200 € a tonne in capital alone, for a first of its kind with its own harbour terminal. The cement plant in this model costs under 50 € a tonne on the same basis, from a gas twice as concentrated. 100 sits between them.

• Bertone et al. (2024), Techno-Economic Assessment of Amine-Based Carbon Capture in Waste-to-Energy Incineration Plant Retrofit, Sustainability 16(19) 8468 — 90–156 €/tCO₂ at 12 and 3 kt/y
• IEA Bioenergy (2025), Full-scale Waste-to-Energy CCS in Norway, BECCUS Phase 2 — Klemetsrud: CAPEX P85 NOK 9.5 bn, P50 8.4 bn; OPEX NOK 0.31 bn/y; 350 kt/y captured; 1 € ≈ 11.6 NOK (March 2025)

Shipping or piping a captured tonne to a storage site and injecting it. 50 € is the figure France Stratégie retains for French industry. Models that assume a shared network at scale go lower — 17 to 21 € in the IND-OPT study — and the one French cluster costed so far, Dunkirk, comes out at 120 to 160 €, because the CO₂ leaves by ship for a reservoir in the North Sea. Charged on every tonne stored, biogenic ones included, since a ship does not sort them either.

• France Stratégie (May 2023), Les coûts d'abattement — partie 5, Industrie, ch. 4 §3, pp. 38–40 — transport and storage at 50 €/t stored
• Raillard-Cazanove, Knibiehly & Girard (2025), J. Cleaner Production 508, 145511 — transport and storage 21.2 €/t (2030), 17.2 (2050)
• ADEME (2024), ZIBAC Dunkerque — 120–160 €/t

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv, steam methane reforming

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, emission_factor

• POMMES-INDUSTRY, conversion_factor.csv, methanol-to-olefins

Residential 2 847.22 Mm² plus tertiary 799.50 Mm², from the building_segment table below. THIS IS NOT AN INDEPENDENT FIGURE, and the interface's "x% of the country's floor area" reads 100% for the United Kingdom as a result. France's 4 200 Mm² is ADEME's national floor-area statistic, measured independently of the stock model, and the 87% coverage it produces is a real diagnostic. Britain publishes no equivalent: the residential half here is 29.6 million GB dwellings times the English Housing Survey's mean useful floor area, and the tertiary half is derived from heat demand, so putting either back in as the denominator would compare a number with itself. What would close it: the Valuation Office Agency's non-domestic rating floorspace statistics for the tertiary half — whose gov.uk collection URL returned 404 on 2026-09-04 and needs re-finding — plus the devolved housing surveys for the residential half of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, which the English mean currently stands in for.

• Computed by extract/gb_building_segment.py; see the building_segment table for the two halves and their sources

Demand reduction achieved by one deep renovation, used to convert the average stock improvement into an equivalent number of deep renovations.

• ADEME orders of magnitude for a BBC-rénovation-level retrofit

• Conventional lifetime for building-envelope work

• Conventional lifetime for a residential heat pump

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: 80 €/m² relabelled as £/m². British evidence points higher — the CCC's Balanced Pathway costs a typical air-source heat pump installation at several thousand pounds before the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant, and the grant itself is £7 500, which is a statement about the underlying cost. Carrying the French figure understates the capital side of British heat-pump scenarios. What would close it: the CCC's own heat-pump unit costs in the Seventh Carbon Budget cost annex, or DESNZ's heat-pump cost evidence for the Boiler Upgrade Scheme.

• No UK source secured. French ADEME order of magnitude — recorded as provisional.

1.0, and for a better reason than France's 1.055. The United Kingdom ZERO-RATES the installation of energy-saving materials in residential accommodation — insulation, heat pumps, solar panels, heat-network connections — under VAT Notice 708/6, a relief that runs to 31 March 2027 and then reverts to the reduced rate of 5%. So retrofit work of the kind this model prices carries no VAT at all today, and the multiplier is one. Two caveats worth putting in front of a player. The zero rate applies to the INSTALLATION of qualifying materials, not to a whole-house renovation: general building work stays at the standard 20%. And the relief expires inside the horizon of this game, so a 2050 scenario priced at 1.0 is assuming a policy that is currently legislated to end.

• HMRC, VAT Notice 708/6: Energy-saving materials and heating equipment — Zero rate for the installation of qualifying energy-saving materials in residential accommodation in Great Britain and Northern Ireland from 1 April 2022 to 31 March 2027; reduced rate of 5% thereafter.

UK households in 2024. Households, not dwellings: England's dwelling stock alone was 25.6 million at 31 March 2024 and the UK dwelling stock is larger than the household count because of vacants and second homes. The French constant counts main residences, which is the same idea.

• ONS, Families and households in the UK: 2024 — 28.6 million households in the UK in 2024; 19.7 million families.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: INSEE's French household budget for owning a car, relabelled as pounds. The British counterpart is published — ONS Family spending in the UK gives weekly household expenditure on the purchase and running of vehicles — and it was not retrieved in this pass. What would close it: ONS Family spending in the UK, Table A1, transport (COICOP division 7), split between vehicle purchase and operation.

• No UK source secured. INSEE household budget, France — recorded as provisional.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the same INSEE budget for all transport, relabelled. Same source would close it.

• No UK source secured. INSEE household budget, France — recorded as provisional.

7 100 miles a year, the National Travel Survey's 2024 figure for all cars, converted at 1.609344 km per mile. It is 3% below the French 11 600 and it has been falling for twenty years: 9 200 miles in 2002, 7 600 in 2019, 7 100 in 2024. Battery-electric cars are driven further than average (8 900 miles) and petrol cars less (6 200), which matters to any scenario that electrifies by vehicle count rather than by distance.

• DfT, National Travel Survey table NTS0901a — annual mileage of cars by fuel type, England, 2024 — All cars 7 100 miles in 2024; petrol 6 200, diesel 8 300, hybrid 8 000, battery electric 8 900. 7 100 × 1.609344 = 11 426 km.

The car fleet the model computes at this country's reference scenario. It is a PINNED MODEL OUTPUT, not a statistic: run the reference once, read it back, record it here. It is pinned, and costs.transport.fleetRatio is 1.000000000 at the reference as a result. If it ever disagrees with the model's own reference run, the model is right and this constant is stale. For scale: 36.1 million cars against the 33.8 million licensed in Great Britain today, and against France's pinned 28.8 million. The model's fleet is larger than the licensed one because the British passenger table puts vans and taxis inside the car row — TSGB does not separate their passenger-kilometres — so the fleet the model derives from that demand is a car-plus-van fleet.

• Pinned model output; see app/tools/pin_reference.py

New forest does not store carbon the year it is planted. Hectares planted less than ten years before the horizon are left out of the afforestation term altogether, which is a crude step where the truth is a curve; the alternative — a growth function nobody in the sources publishes — would be a curve we invented.

New forest is booked at the expansion rate rather than at the average per-hectare rate of the standing forest, because a young stand does not store like a mature one. The same source gives 5.0 for a renewal plan on existing forest and 0.2 to 2.4 for the rest of the forest depending on management and climate; 3.0 is the expansion line.

• IGN–FCBA (2024), Projections des disponibilités en bois et des stocks et flux de carbone du secteur forestier, table 15

1.0 tC/ha/y lost for twenty years when permanent grassland is ploughed, converted here at 44/12. The interval on it is ±40%, and the stock difference between the two uses (84.6 against 51.6 tC/ha over 0–30 cm) would imply 1.65 tC/ha/y if all of it were lost before a new equilibrium — it is not, and the modal value is what the inventory uses. These coefficients are measured on one country's soils and a port should check them against its own; they are shared because soil chemistry does not stop at a border, not because they are beyond argument.

• Citepa for the Haut Conseil pour le Climat (2021), Incertitudes liées à la comptabilisation des puits de carbone dans les sols, fig. 12 — after Arrouays et al. (2002)

0.5 tC/ha/y regained for twenty years when arable land goes back to grass, converted at 44/12. Half the loss rate, and deliberately so: the same source's finding is that "loss is twice as fast as gain", which is what makes re-grassing a slower repair than ploughing was a break.

• Citepa for the Haut Conseil pour le Climat (2021), Incertitudes liées à la comptabilisation des puits de carbone dans les sols, fig. 12 — after Arrouays et al. (2002)

How long a hectare goes on emitting, or storing, after it changes use. Twenty years is the tail the inventory applies, so at a horizon 26 years away only the last twenty years of conversions are still in the flux.

• Citepa for the Haut Conseil pour le Climat (2021), Incertitudes liées à la comptabilisation des puits de carbone dans les sols, tables 7 and 9

This edition does not carry the land module. The natural sink is the naturalSink slider, exactly as it was before the module existed, the seven land levers are hidden and inert, and the Land & food tab is not drawn. Everything the module needs is declared below as a placeholder; switching this constant to 1 without replacing all of it would put French land in the United Kingdom.

2024 to 2050 — the horizon of this edition, counted from the year after the land survey the account would be written on. Derived rather than a placeholder: it follows this edition's own horizon and nothing else.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: gross biological production per hectare. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: mortality per hectare. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: forest area available for wood production. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: standing live volume. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: base-year removals of live trees. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: what a cubic metre leaving the living stock takes with it. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the inventory's sink over its balance at the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the dead-wood pool per cubic metre of mortality. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the half-life of carbon in dead wood. Inert, because land_module_active is 0, which also holds the dead wood at its base year.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: litter and forest soil on land-use change. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: forest outside the land account's territory. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: sawlogs in the base-year harvest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: industrial wood in the base-year harvest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: energy wood sold, in the base-year harvest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: firewood cut and never sold. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: wood felled and left in the forest, in million cubic metres a year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: standing-stock volume per cubic metre of the harvest statistic. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the wood-products pool per cubic metre a year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the base-year long-lived share of the harvest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Measured on one building and cross-checked against element coefficients, because no whole-building intensity by structural system is published anywhere. The anchor is an eight-storey, 142-dwelling mass-timber residential building whose bill of materials was compared with a functionally equivalent concrete one: 519 to 553 kg/m² of concrete avoided over 13 766 m² of gross floor area, which at 280–320 kg of cement a cubic metre and a density of 2 380 kg/m³ is 61 to 74 kg of cement, and 67 is the middle. A timber building is not a building without concrete, and that is the point of a saving rather than a substitution. The same measured building still carried 288 kg/m² of concrete in its foundations, its ground floor and its toppings, and used more lean concrete than its concrete twin. Against the 137 kg/m² this model books for new French housing, 67 is close to half — which is the right order: négaWatt reaches −46% of concrete at 80 to 95% timber, and half of 90% is 45. The competing way to model this is a displacement factor in tonnes of carbon avoided per tonne of carbon in the wood, and it is deliberately not used here. That literature has moved from 2.1 (Sathre and O'Connor 2010, 21 studies) to 1.2 (Leskinen 2018, 51 studies) to 0.55 at market level (Hurmekoski 2021, 44 studies, range 0.27–1.16), with a French critique arguing the benefit has been overstated several fold. A kilogramme of cement not made is a physical quantity this model already prices and emits; a displacement factor is an argument about counterfactuals. The model takes the physical route and leaves the argument to the annex.

• FPInnovations / Gouvernement du Québec, comparative LCA of an 8-storey mass-timber residential building (Arbora, Montréal) — bill of materials
• Hurmekoski et al. 2021, «Substitution impacts of wood use at the market level», Environmental Research Letters — market-level displacement factor 0.55 (0.27–1.16)
• FCBA/BIPE 2019 for CODIFAB, FBF and ADEME — element-level equivalences: 1 kg of wood replaces 5.24 kg of concrete and 0.18 kg of rebar in a load-bearing CLT façade

From the same measured building, and deliberately the net figure: the timber structure removes about 21 kg/m² of reinforcement, and adds back steel balconies, galvanised studs and brick support, so the whole-building balance is roughly −17 kg/m². Against the 21 kg/m² this model books for new French housing that is most of it — which is exactly why the national effect is small: new buildings are about a tenth of French steel, so even a wholesale switch to timber moves the steel bar by a few percent. ADEME's own biosourced scenario finds −2% then −5% on steel against −2% then −8% on cement, and this model reproduces that asymmetry rather than asserting it.

• FPInnovations / Gouvernement du Québec, comparative LCA of an 8-storey mass-timber residential building — whole-building steel balance
• ADEME 2019, «Prospective de consommation de matériaux pour la construction des bâtiments», scénario «développement des biosourcés»

Two independent anchors agree, which is the only reason this number is here at all. The measured mass-timber building carries 2 597 m³ of cross-laminated timber, glulam beams and glulam columns over 13 766 m² — 0.189 m³/m². The French biosourced-building label's top level asks for 45 kgC/m² for housing, which at the carbon content and density of softwood is 0.200 m³/m². Light timber frame sits well below both, so 0.189 is a mass-timber figure and overstates what an ossature-bois house uses; the model says so rather than splitting a coefficient it cannot source.

• FPInnovations / Gouvernement du Québec, Arbora mass-timber building — 2 047 m³ CLT + 378.2 m³ beams + 171.6 m³ columns over 13 766 m²
• Arrêté du 2 juillet 2024, label «bâtiment biosourcé» — 45 kgC/m² for level 3 in housing

A sawmill turns roughly half of a sawlog into sawn timber; the rest is slabwood, sawdust and bark, and most of it is sold as chips, pellets or panel furnish rather than lost. The factor is what lets construction timber demand be compared with the long-lived harvest the forest account already computes, and 2.0 is the round number the trade uses. It is provisional because a national yield is not published on the same perimeter as this model's harvest.

• Agreste, «Récolte de bois et production de sciages en 2024» — 18.3 Mm³ of sawlogs against 8.16 Mm³ of sawnwood produced

Zero, matching the hidden timberShare lever, so the timber term is identically zero everywhere in this edition.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the base-year wood-products balance. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: carbon carried into the wood-products pool per cubic metre of long-lived harvest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the half-life of the long-lived wood-products pool. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the wood-products stock the national inventory report implies. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: absorption per hectare of permanent grassland. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: emission per hectare of arable land. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: emission per unit of annual artificialisation. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: wetlands, other land and dams. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: what a rewetted hectare of organic soil still emits, in tCO₂e a year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of the drained organic soil already rewetted in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the N₂O of a drained hectare of agricultural organic soil, in tCO₂e a year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the soil-carbon potential on arable land. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the soil-carbon potential on grassland. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the share of artificialised land taken from arable land. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of artificialised land taken from permanent grassland. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of artificialised land taken from forest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the observed artificialisation rate. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: deliberate afforestation in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: net grassland conversion in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the share of the soil-carbon potential already taken. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the inventory's observed forest line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the inventory's observed wood-products line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the inventory's observed grassland line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the inventory's observed cropland line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the inventory's observed artificial-areas line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not UK data: the inventory's observed wetlands line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The land module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

One, by definition: dietDairy is an index on the base year, so the base year sits at 100%. It is declared rather than written into the formula so that the switched-off branch of the module names what it reads.

Zero: the base year has cut none of its own waste, because the waste share is measured on it.

One: the export volumes the table declares are the base year, so the index that scales them is one there.

One, like livestock_export_base: the export hectares the crop block declares are the base year's, and the index that scales them is one there.

One: mineral_n_base is the base-year delivery, and nIntensity is a percentage of it.

Zero, and this is a statement about the calibration rather than about farming practice: the per-head emission factors are fitted to the observed inventory year, so whatever low-methane feeding that year already contained is inside the factors. The lever measures the change from there, and the change at the base year is nothing.

Zero, for the same reason as enteric_mitigation_base: the digesters the base year already runs are inside the observed emission factors, and the lever books the change from there. It is not a claim that no manure is methanised today.

Zero: the base year burns all of the fossil fuel the inventory measures on its farms.

The observed emission factor of fossil liquid fuel, the value efLiquid slides away from and the one the base-year farm burned. It is used in one place only — to say how much energy the base year's farm fuel represents — and no emission is charged at it.

The natural logarithm of two, which turns a half-life into a first-order decay rate: k = ln 2 / half-life. Declared once rather than written into a formula, like the nitrogen fraction of ammonia, because a number that appears in an equation should be a number a reader can find.

• IPCC (2006), Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Vol. 4, Ch. 12, Equation 12.1 — k = ln(2)/HL

14 ÷ 17: the nitrogen in a tonne of ammonia, from the atomic masses. It is the one number in this module that is chemistry rather than statistics, and it is what turns a nitrogen demand into an ammonia tonnage for the industry chain.

• IUPAC atomic weights: N 14.007, H 1.008 — 14.007 / 17.031 = 0.8225

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: population in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: population at the horizon. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: observed red meat eaten per person. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: observed poultry eaten per person. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the edible share of the food supply that is thrown away. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of beef that is a by-product of the dairy herd. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the enteric methane a low-methane ration removes. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the manure methane a digester avoids. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: refrigerant leakage on farms. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: mineral nitrogen delivered in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: nitrogen in the manure collected and spread. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: nitrogen deposited at pasture. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: nitrogen fixed biologically by legumes. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the fixation added over the legume credit's span. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: legume area in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the mineral nitrogen a larger legume area replaces. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the increase in legume area that credit was booked over. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the organic share of the arable area in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the organic yield as a fraction of the conventional one. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the dose, as a fraction of the base year's, down to which a conventional hectare keeps its yield. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the nitrogen use efficiency of cropland, which sets how fast the yield falls below the plateau. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the edible share of the plant-food supply wasted downstream of the farm. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of the non-energy arable area growing plant food. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share growing feed. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share growing export crops. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: fallow, seed and the rest. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the forage part of the feed area. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the arable area growing a main crop for a digester in the base year, in million hectares. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: dry matter a hectare of that main crop yields, in tonnes. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the digester and digestate emissions per hectare of that main crop, in tCO₂e a year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: poultry's share of compound feed. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: cattle's share of compound feed. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: pigs' share of compound feed. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the N₂O per tonne of mineral nitrogen. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the urea and liming CO₂ per tonne of mineral nitrogen. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: agricultural CO₂ the nitrogen dose does not drive — liming and the other carbon-containing fertilisers. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the N₂O per tonne of nitrogen in spread manure. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the N₂O per tonne of nitrogen deposited at pasture. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the remaining crop N₂O per tonne of nitrogen input. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: field burning of crop residues. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the combustion emissions of farm and forestry engines. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the rough grazing the farm survey and the land survey disagree about. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the ammonia the chemical industry makes for something else. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the base-year share of nitrogen made inside the country. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the inventory's observed livestock line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the inventory's observed crops-and-soils line. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The food module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

Methane yield of the wet feedstocks a digester takes — manure, crop residues and grass alike, which is how the source publishes it, as one number rather than three. Cover crops get their own, higher figure (cive_biogas_yield), because a whole green plant digests better than straw or a slurry does. It is shared rather than national because it is a property of the substrate, not of the country: the same tonne of dry manure yields the same methane in Germany. What is national is how many tonnes there are, which is manure_dm_per_cattle_head and its neighbours.

• IGEDD/CGE/CGAAER, Évaluation du potentiel de production d'énergies renouvelables à partir de la biomasse, déc. 2023, annexe 10 p. 134 — 2,0 MWh PCI/t MS pour effluents, résidus et herbe

A winter intermediate crop harvested whole gives 250–320 Nm³ of methane a tonne of dry matter, and a normal cubic metre of methane is 9.97 kWh PCI, so the range is 2.5–3.2 MWh/t DM. 2.8 is its middle, and it is the figure that makes the mission's own arithmetic work: 6 t DM/ha × 2.8 is 17 TWh per million hectares, which is what the report quotes.

• IGEDD 2023, p. 22–23 et annexe 10 — 250–320 Nm³ CH₄/t MS, 17 TWh/Mha de CIVE
• AILE, Les substrats en méthanisation — pouvoirs méthanogènes par substrat

A tonne of dry residue turned into a second-generation liquid fuel by the thermochemical route yields the same 2.0 MWh as the same tonne turned into biogas, which is exactly why the two compete: choosing one forecloses the other at no gain in energy. Declared separately from the biogas figure so that a source which does separate them can move one without the other. The equality is not a coincidence of rounding — Fischer-Tropsch converts at up to 50% and a digester's methane at a similar order — but it is a coarse number, and the route's real efficiency depends on the plant.

• IGEDD 2023, annexe 10 — 2,0 MWh/t MS en voie thermochimique ; Fischer-Tropsch ≤ 50 %, FAME ≤ 70 %

Two administrations publish two numbers and the game has to pick one. The energy directorate's biomass balance uses 2.14 MWh per cubic metre of roundwood; the environment inspectorate's annex uses 2.4. 2.14 is taken because it is the figure the balance that also supplies non_forest_wood and waste_wood is written on, and mixing two conventions inside one total would be worse than choosing the lower of them. The difference is 12%, or about fourteen terawatt-hours on the base year — larger than any single lever in this block moves. It is shared rather than national because it is a conversion, not a measurement of a country: what varies across borders is the species mix behind it, and a country that knows its own should say so in the why of the entries that use it.

• SGPE, Bouclage biomasse : enjeux et orientations, juillet 2024, p. 19 — 2,14 MWh/m³
• IGEDD 2023, annexe 7 — 2,4 MWh PCI/m³, la valeur non retenue

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: collectable manure dry matter per head of cattle, in tonnes a year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the same per pig. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of collectable manure that reached a digester in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: dry matter a hectare of winter cover crop yields, in tonnes. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the cover-crop area in the base year, in million hectares. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the spring-crop area that could carry a cover crop at all. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: crop residues an arable hectare produces, in tonnes of dry matter. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of them already carried off the field in the base year. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: how the mobilised residues split between a digester and a 2G liquid plant. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the biogas feedstock the module does not build — biowaste, sludge, landfill gas. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the share of the material harvest that comes back as sawmill and pulp-mill fuel. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: wood energy from hedges, orchards and trees outside woodland, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: end-of-life wood burned for energy, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: fuel a hectare of first-generation energy crop yields, in MWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: the first-generation energy-crop area in the base year, in million hectares. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: used cooking oil and animal fats made into liquid fuel, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: liquid biofuel and feedstock imported in the base year, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: observed primary consumption of wood energy in the base year, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: observed primary consumption of biogas in the base year, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.

PLACEHOLDER — French value carried, not national data: observed primary consumption of liquid biofuel in the base year, in TWh. Inert, because land_module_active is 0.

• countries/FR/FR.yaml — French value carried unchanged. The bioenergy module is switched off in this edition (`land_module_active` = 0), so nothing reads it.